CIN vs MIL prediction for July 2, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIL 6.3 - CIN 4.7. MIL is favored with a 65.0% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 11.1 total runs.
MIL
6.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
CIN
4.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
MILCIN
-1.5
Run Line (MIL)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.1% (2,543 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CIN
357
MIL
468
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Rhett Lowder R
CIN
SI30%92 mph6% whiff
SL26%85 mph34% whiff
FF23%93 mph13% whiff
Brandon Sproat R
MIL
SI26%96 mph16% whiff
FC24%93 mph21% whiff
FF20%97 mph22% whiff
Weather Impact
American Family Field
92°F15 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 0.994 Total: 0.993
thin air, 11mph in
Bullpen Comparison
CIN
4.59ERA
5.23FIP
8.86K/9
5.87BB/9
1.53WHIP
MIL
3.66ERA
3.52FIP
9.38K/9
3.94BB/9
1.32WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-45.2% EV
-156
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-26.6% EV
-105
TOTAL OVER 8.5
+16.6% EV
-115
ML AWAY
-14.8% EV
+134
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
+11.6% EV
+130
ML HOME
+3.7% EV
-159
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CIN F5
2.7 runs
33.7% win
MIL F5
3.8 runs
54.4% win
F5 Total
6.4
NRFI
49.4%
YRFI
50.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.19
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.9
Over 0.5 HR
94%
Over 1.5 HR
78%
No HR
6%
JJ Bleday CIN30.0%
ISO: 0.350 | Barrel: 18.0% | vs Brandon Sproat | Platoon: 1.12x
Nathaniel Lowe CIN30.0%
ISO: 0.264 | Barrel: 13.6% | vs Brandon Sproat | Platoon: 1.12x
Jake Bauers MIL30.0%
ISO: 0.268 | Barrel: 14.0% | vs Rhett Lowder | Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Rhett Lowder
0.0 K projected
CIN | K/9: 0.0
Brandon Sproat
0.0 K projected
MIL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CIN8 injured
Graham Ashcraft RP60-DAY-IL
Hunter Greene SP60-DAY-IL
Dane Myers CF10-DAY-IL
Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B10-DAY-IL
Brandon Williamson SP60-DAY-IL
Blake Dunn CF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
MIL8 injured
Logan Henderson SP15-DAY-IL
Rob Zastryzny RP15-DAY-IL
DL Hall RP15-DAY-IL
Coleman Crow SP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Lockridge LF10-DAY-IL
Quinn Priester SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIL 65.0%
+11.6 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+11.6 pts
Total
8.5
+16.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →