CIN vs NYM prediction for May 25, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYM 4.5 - CIN 4.8. CIN is favored with a 51.7% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 9.3 total runs.
NYM
4.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
CIN
4.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYMCIN
-1.5
Run Line (NYM)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.5% (2,300 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CIN
357
NYM
346
Projected
NYM 4.5 — CIN 4.8
Actual
NYM 2 — CIN 7
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Nick Lodolo L
CIN
CH27%89 mph19% whiff
CU26%82 mph36% whiff
SI25%94 mph10% whiff
Nolan McLean R
NYM
SI36%95 mph14% whiff
FF18%96 mph17% whiff
ST15%85 mph15% whiff
Weather Impact
Citi Field
68°F7 mph wind
HR: 1.005 Total: 1.002
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
CIN
4.82ERA
5.44FIP
9.15K/9
6.18BB/9
1.52WHIP
NYM
4.06ERA
3.88FIP
8.98K/9
3.76BB/9
1.32WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-31.8% EV
-179
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-22.0% EV
-115
ML HOME
-16.7% EV
-152
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-14.5% EV
+146
ML AWAY
+13.6% EV
+128
TOTAL OVER 7.5
+13.6% EV
-105
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CIN F5
2.5 runs
36.6% win
NYM F5
2.9 runs
49.1% win
F5 Total
5.4
NRFI
53.0%
YRFI
47.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.01
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.6
Over 0.5 HR
93%
Over 1.5 HR
73%
No HR
7%
Tyrone Taylor NYM25.6%
ISO: 0.209 | Barrel: 6.9% | vs Nick Lodolo | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
JJ Bleday CIN23.9%
ISO: 0.338 | Barrel: 17.5% | vs Nolan McLean | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Bo Bichette NYM21.2%
ISO: 0.268 | Barrel: 4.9% | vs Nick Lodolo | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Nick Lodolo
0.0 K projected
CIN | K/9: 0.0
Nolan McLean
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CIN8 injured
Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B10-DAY-IL
Rhett Lowder SP15-DAY-IL
Emilio Pagan RP15-DAY-IL
Jose Trevino C10-DAY-IL
Hunter Greene SP60-DAY-IL
Connor Burns CDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
NYM8 injured
Francisco Lindor SS10-DAY-IL
Jorge Polanco 1B10-DAY-IL
Juan Soto LFDAY-TO-DAY
Kodai Senga SP15-DAY-IL
A.J. Minter RP60-DAY-IL
Clay Holmes SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE50.0% WR (n=285)
Model projects 9.31 total runs (OVER 7.5, +13.6% edge, 58.3% model prob). Pitcher matchup heavily favors NYM: Nolan McLean (B pitcher, 3.86 ERA, 0.588 grade) vs Nick Lodolo (C pitcher, 7.78 ERA (!), 0.274 grade) — Lodolo is one of the worst SPs on the slate. Even though model projects CIN underdog (51.7% win prob), the high-ERA Lodolo makes CIN lineup face severe disadvantage. Low-scoring environment unlikely; NYM will score, CIN will need to keep up = over bet.
Key Factors
- Pitcher mismatch: Lodolo 7.78 ERA (C grade, 0.274 overall_score) is bottom-5 arm on slate. McLean 3.86 ERA (B grade, 0.588 score) is solid. ~3.9 ERA gap translates to ~2-3 run difference in game total prediction. Model projects 9.31 runs (vs 7.5 market) largely due to Lodolo's vulnerability.
- Weather neutral (68.1F, 7.1 mph wind slightly in, humidity 88%). Park factor 1.0 (neutral). No environmental amplification.
- NYM bullpen (4.06 ERA, quality 1.108) is solid; CIN bullpen (4.82 ERA, quality 0.934) below average. If game stays close through 6 innings, NYM's relief edge helps them extend lead.
- Model edge only 13.6% on total (modest) but paired with clear SP advantage for NYM side (McLean 3.86 vs Lodolo 7.78) = reasonable corner play.
Risk Factors
- Totals are DISABLED (grade F, 44.9% WR). Caution on all total edges, even 13.6%. Market may be efficiently pricing runs despite Lodolo weakness.
- CIN underdog (51.7%, market 43.9%) offers underdog value play on ML instead of chasing total edge. If CIN can get to Lodolo early for runs, game could go over without requiring big-scoring framework.
- YELLOW zone (50% WR) on totals is not compelling; edge only 13.6% (modest); recommend LEAN (0.75u) vs full bet.
PITCHER MISMATCHTOTALS VALUE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CIN 51.7%
-14.5 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-14.5 pts
Total
7.5
+13.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →