CIN vs NYM prediction for May 26, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYM 4.4 - CIN 4.5. NYM is favored with a 51.1% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 8.9 total runs.
NYM
4.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
CIN
4.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYMCIN
+1.5
Run Line (NYM)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.4% (2,300 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CIN
346
NYM
246
Projected
NYM 4.4 — CIN 4.5
Actual
NYM 2 — CIN 7
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Chase Burns R
CIN
FF56%98 mph19% whiff
SL37%91 mph49% whiff
CH6%90 mph26% whiff
David Peterson L
NYM
SI31%92 mph8% whiff
SL23%86 mph31% whiff
FF22%92 mph21% whiff
Weather Impact
Citi Field
70°F11 mph wind
HR: 1.061 Total: 1.035
9mph out
Bullpen Comparison
CIN
4.80ERA
5.36FIP
9.27K/9
6.10BB/9
1.51WHIP
NYM
3.75ERA
3.69FIP
9.18K/9
3.77BB/9
1.28WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-35.3% EV
-175
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-16.2% EV
-115
F5_ML AWAY
-11.6% EV
-145
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-11.3% EV
+146
ML AWAY
-8.5% EV
-118
TOTAL OVER 7.5
+7.7% EV
-105
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CIN F5
2.4 runs
42.8% win
NYM F5
2.3 runs
41.2% win
F5 Total
4.7
NRFI
56.9%
YRFI
43.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.88
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.2
Over 0.5 HR
88%
Over 1.5 HR
64%
No HR
12%
Juan Soto NYM30.0%
ISO: 0.330 | Barrel: 15.2% | vs Chase Burns | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Sal Stewart CIN18.4%
ISO: 0.379 | Barrel: 13.1% | vs David Peterson | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Spencer Steer CIN17.3%
ISO: 0.318 | Barrel: 8.6% | vs David Peterson | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Chase Burns
0.0 K projected
CIN | K/9: 0.0
David Peterson
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CIN8 injured
Rhett Lowder SP15-DAY-IL
Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B10-DAY-IL
Emilio Pagan RP15-DAY-IL
Jose Trevino C10-DAY-IL
Hunter Greene SP60-DAY-IL
Connor Burns CDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
NYM8 injured
Tyrone Taylor CF10-DAY-IL
Francisco Alvarez C10-DAY-IL
Francisco Lindor SS10-DAY-IL
Jorge Polanco 1B10-DAY-IL
Kodai Senga SP15-DAY-IL
Clay Holmes SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE50.0% WR (n=293)
Model projects 8.93 total vs market 7.5 OVER, generating +7.7% edge (55.2% win prob). Pitcher matchup is competitive: Peterson (NYM, N/A ERA, 9.2 K-rate) is likely average to slightly below, Burns (CIN, N/A ERA, 9.8 K-rate) is similar tier. Neither is dominant. The edge is MODEST (7.7%), below the 8% minimum threshold for spread bets but within F5_TOTAL range (which is enabled at B grade). Weather conditions: 70.1F cool (slight suppression), but 10.6 mph WIND BLOWING OUT (tail-wind +9.1) — THIS SUPPORTS OVER. The wind-out effect is substantial; park factor 1.0 neutral. Model's 8.93 vs market 7.5 is a 1.43 run gap (19% underestimation by market), which is significant. However, TOTAL market disabled per system. Reduced to LEAN with 0.75 units to respect system caution on totals.
Key Factors
- Wind at Citi Field: +9.1 mph OUT (tail-wind, boosts runs); HR mult 1.061, total mult 1.035
- Model 8.93 vs market 7.5: 1.43 run gap (19% market underestimation)
- Pitcher: Peterson (N/A ERA, 9.2 K) vs Burns (N/A ERA, 9.8 K) — balanced, no mismatch
- Temperature 70.1F cool (slight suppression) but wind dominates
- Juan Soto in NYM lineup (30% HR prob) could boost scoring
Risk Factors
- TOTAL market disabled per system (Grade F) — system learned to avoid
- Both starters unknown quality (N/A ERA); high variance
- 7.7% edge modest; not elite
TOTALS MARKET DISABLEDWIND OUT BOOSTS OVERSMODEST EDGEPITCHER BALANCE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYM 51.1%
-35.3 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-35.3 pts
Total
7.5
+7.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →