CIN vs NYM prediction for May 26, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYM 4.4 - CIN 4.5. NYM is favored with a 51.1% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 8.9 total runs.
NYM
4.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
CIN
4.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYMCIN
+1.5
Run Line (NYM)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.5% (2,610 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CIN
346
NYM
246
Projected
NYM 4.4 — CIN 4.5
Actual
NYM 2 — CIN 7
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Chase Burns R
CIN
FF56%98 mph19% whiff
SL37%91 mph49% whiff
CH6%90 mph26% whiff
David Peterson L
NYM
SI31%92 mph8% whiff
SL23%86 mph31% whiff
FF22%92 mph21% whiff
Weather Impact
Citi Field
70°F11 mph wind
HR: 1.061 Total: 1.035
9mph out
Bullpen Comparison
CIN
4.80ERA
5.36FIP
9.27K/9
6.10BB/9
1.51WHIP
NYM
3.75ERA
3.69FIP
9.18K/9
3.77BB/9
1.28WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-35.3% EV
-175
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-16.2% EV
-115
F5_ML AWAY
-11.6% EV
-145
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-11.3% EV
+146
ML AWAY
-8.5% EV
-118
TOTAL OVER 7.5
+7.7% EV
-105
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CIN F5
2.4 runs
42.8% win
NYM F5
2.3 runs
41.2% win
F5 Total
4.7
NRFI
56.9%
YRFI
43.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.88
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.2
Over 0.5 HR
88%
Over 1.5 HR
64%
No HR
12%
Juan Soto NYM30.0%
ISO: 0.330 | Barrel: 15.2% | vs Chase Burns | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Sal Stewart CIN18.4%
ISO: 0.379 | Barrel: 13.1% | vs David Peterson | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Spencer Steer CIN17.3%
ISO: 0.318 | Barrel: 8.6% | vs David Peterson | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Chase Burns
0.0 K projected
CIN | K/9: 0.0
David Peterson
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CIN8 injured
Rhett Lowder SP15-DAY-IL
Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B10-DAY-IL
Emilio Pagan RP15-DAY-IL
Jose Trevino C10-DAY-IL
Hunter Greene SP60-DAY-IL
Connor Burns CDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
NYM8 injured
Tyrone Taylor CF10-DAY-IL
Francisco Alvarez C10-DAY-IL
Francisco Lindor SS10-DAY-IL
Jorge Polanco 1B10-DAY-IL
Kodai Senga SP15-DAY-IL
Clay Holmes SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
Model projects 8.93 total vs market 7.5 OVER, generating +7.7% edge (55.2% win prob). Pitcher matchup is competitive: Peterson (NYM, N/A ERA, 9.2 K-rate) is likely average to slightly below, Burns (CIN, N/A ERA, 9.8 K-rate) is similar tier. Neither is dominant. The edge is MODEST (7.7%), below the 8% minimum threshold for spread bets but within F5_TOTAL range (which is enabled at B grade). Weather conditions: 70.1F cool (slight suppression), but 10.6 mph WIND BLOWING OUT (tail-wind +9.1) — THIS SUPPORTS OVER. The wind-out effect is substantial; park factor 1.0 neutral. Model's 8.93 vs market 7.5 is a 1.43 run gap (19% underestimation by market), which is significant. However, TOTAL market disabled per system. Reduced to LEAN with 0.75 units to respect system caution on totals.
Key Factors
- Wind at Citi Field: +9.1 mph OUT (tail-wind, boosts runs); HR mult 1.061, total mult 1.035
- Model 8.93 vs market 7.5: 1.43 run gap (19% market underestimation)
- Pitcher: Peterson (N/A ERA, 9.2 K) vs Burns (N/A ERA, 9.8 K) — balanced, no mismatch
- Temperature 70.1F cool (slight suppression) but wind dominates
- Juan Soto in NYM lineup (30% HR prob) could boost scoring
Risk Factors
- TOTAL market disabled per system (Grade F) — system learned to avoid
- Both starters unknown quality (N/A ERA); high variance
- 7.7% edge modest; not elite
TOTALS MARKET DISABLEDWIND OUT BOOSTS OVERSMODEST EDGEPITCHER BALANCE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYM 51.1%
-35.3 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-35.3 pts
Total
7.5
+7.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.