CIN vs NYM prediction for May 27, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYM 3.9 - CIN 4.2. CIN is favored with a 50.8% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 8.0 total runs.
NYM
3.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
CIN
4.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYMCIN
+1.5
Run Line (NYM)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.5% (2,610 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CIN
246
NYM
246
Projected
NYM 3.9 — CIN 4.2
Actual
NYM 4 — CIN 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Andrew Abbott L
CIN
FF48%93 mph7% whiff
ST20%82 mph26% whiff
CH18%86 mph44% whiff
Huascar Brazobán R
NYM
SI49%96 mph21% whiff
CH41%90 mph31% whiff
FF5%96 mph11% whiff
Weather Impact
Citi Field
85°F9 mph wind
HR: 1.023 Total: 1.011
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
CIN
4.71ERA
5.30FIP
9.18K/9
5.98BB/9
1.49WHIP
NYM
3.72ERA
3.62FIP
9.39K/9
3.79BB/9
1.28WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-39.6% EV
-204
F5 UNDER 4.5
+19.6% EV
-108
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-13.6% EV
+100
NRFI NRFI
+11.7% EV
-111
F5_ML AWAY
-10.9% EV
-106
ML HOME
-8.8% EV
-120
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CIN F5
1.7 runs
35.8% win
NYM F5
2.0 runs
43.8% win
F5 Total
3.7
NRFI
63.9%
YRFI
36.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.69
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.7
Over 0.5 HR
82%
Over 1.5 HR
51%
No HR
18%
Juan Soto NYM22.3%
ISO: 0.164 | Barrel: 16.0% | vs Andrew Abbott | Park: 0.96x
Nathaniel Lowe CIN21.1%
ISO: 0.330 | Barrel: 16.6% | vs Huascar Brazobán | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Mark Vientos NYM17.7%
ISO: 0.187 | Barrel: 7.9% | vs Andrew Abbott | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Andrew Abbott
0.0 K projected
CIN | K/9: 0.0
Huascar Brazobán
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CIN8 injured
Rhett Lowder SP15-DAY-IL
Jose Trevino C10-DAY-IL
Emilio Pagan RP15-DAY-IL
Hunter Greene SP60-DAY-IL
Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B10-DAY-IL
Connor Burns CDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
NYM8 injured
Luis Robert Jr. CF60-DAY-IL
Jorge Polanco 1B10-DAY-IL
Tyrone Taylor CF10-DAY-IL
Francisco Alvarez C10-DAY-IL
Francisco Lindor SS10-DAY-IL
Kodai Senga SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN
CIN @ NYM: Model shows UNDER 8.5 edge of 3.4% (56.8% UNDER), with minor ML edge +1.4% away. This is a low-edge game across all markets — essentially neutral. However, F5 UNDER shows +19.6% edge (62% prob UNDER 4.5), suggesting pitching-dominant early game. NRFI shows +11.7% edge (58.8% NRFI). Both starters have TBD/unknown ERA (Brazobán and Abbott), limiting pitcher quality assessment. The game has mild under bias but nothing extreme. LEAN justified on F5 UNDER edge (19.6% is real), not full game total. Unit reduced to 0.75 acknowledging TOTALS DISABLED warning.
Key Factors
- SP TBD data: Brazobán and Abbott both have unknown ERA/pitch data. Cannot assess quality. Model baseline for both = moderate (C+/C grade from system).
- F5 under edge strong: +19.6% edge on UNDER 4.5 (62% prob) is real and actionable. Early-inning pitching advantage is clear.
- NRFI advantage: +11.7% edge (58.8% NRFI) suggests first inning is quiet. Consistent with early under thesis.
- NYM lineup weakened: Multiple 10-day IL players limit offensive upside. Run production risk lower.
- Full-game under modest: 3.4% edge on full-game UNDER is too small. F5 is where the edge is.
Risk Factors
- TOTALS DISABLED: Full-game totals are disabled (45.6% WR). Cannot rely on totals edge.
- F5 markets enabled: F5_total is enabled (54.5% WR), so F5 UNDER is preferred to full-game UNDER.
- Pitcher uncertainty: If either SP is significantly weaker/stronger than estimated, game run expectation shifts.
TBD PITCHER DATAF5 UNDER STRONG EDGENRFI EDGETOTALS DISABLED CAUTIONLEAN F5 NOT FULL GAME
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CIN 50.8%
-39.6 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-39.6 pts
Total
8.5
+3.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.