CIN vs NYY prediction for June 21, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYY 7.2 - CIN 6.0. NYY is favored with a 58.0% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 13.2 total runs.
NYY
7.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
CIN
6.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYYCIN
+1.5
Run Line (NYY)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.0% (2,497 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CIN
468
NYY
579
Projected
NYY 7.2 — CIN 6.0
Actual
NYY 1 — CIN 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Chase Burns R
CIN
FF57%98 mph17% whiff
SL36%91 mph50% whiff
CH6%90 mph31% whiff
Elmer Rodríguez R
NYY
SI42%95 mph16% whiff
FF22%95 mph22% whiff
SL14%80 mph50% whiff
Weather Impact
Yankee Stadium
83°F7 mph wind
HR: 0.997 Total: 0.996
thin air, 7mph in
Bullpen Comparison
CIN
4.59ERA
5.23FIP
8.86K/9
5.87BB/9
1.53WHIP
NYY
3.36ERA
3.71FIP
8.80K/9
3.56BB/9
1.27WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-45.3% EV
+100
TOTAL OVER 8.5
+32.2% EV
-122
F5 OVER 4.5
+27.8% EV
-114
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-21.0% EV
+160
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-20.8% EV
-192
F5_ML AWAY
-20.2% EV
-145
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CIN F5
3.5 runs
39.4% win
NYY F5
4.1 runs
49.8% win
F5 Total
7.7
NRFI
46.1%
YRFI
53.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.33
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.4
Over 0.5 HR
96%
Over 1.5 HR
84%
No HR
4%
JJ Bleday CIN30.0%
ISO: 0.350 | Barrel: 18.0% | vs Elmer Rodríguez | Park: 1.10x Platoon: 1.12x
Sal Stewart CIN30.0%
ISO: 0.169 | Barrel: 9.8% | vs Elmer Rodríguez | Park: 1.10x
Noelvi Marte CIN30.0%
ISO: 0.159 | Barrel: 9.8% | vs Elmer Rodríguez | Park: 1.10x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Chase Burns
0.0 K projected
CIN | K/9: 0.0
Elmer Rodríguez
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CIN8 injured
Emilio Pagan RP15-DAY-IL
Pierce Johnson RP15-DAY-IL
Elly De La Cruz SS10-DAY-IL
Hunter Greene SP60-DAY-IL
Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B10-DAY-IL
Graham Ashcraft RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
NYY7 injured
Max Fried SP15-DAY-IL
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
Trent Grisham CF10-DAY-IL
Giancarlo Stanton DH10-DAY-IL
Eric Reyzelman SPDAY-TO-DAY
Aaron Judge RF10-DAY-IL
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1YELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=222)
Massive +32.2% edge on OVER 8.5 (model 72.6% prob) driven by elite home hitter park (Yankee Stadium +1.1 park factor), hot-hitting NYY at home, and Burns (elite SP, 2.17 ERA) vs Rodriguez (mediocre, 4.48 ERA) — market still at 8.5 despite model expecting 13.16 total runs.
Key Factors
- Massive SP mismatch: Chase Burns (2.17 ERA, B grade stuff, 30.2% K-rate) vs Elmer Rodriguez (4.48 ERA, C- stuff, 7.8% K-rate)
- Yankee Stadium park factor 1.1 + home team historically strong against lesser arms = natural over lean
- Model projects 13.16 runs (7.21 home + 5.95 away); market total 8.5 is -4.66 run underestimate
- Recent over trends: 30-day profile shows OVER 5-10% edge zone at 71.4% WR — sweet spot confirmed
Risk Factors
- Edge >25% in YELLOW zone historically = 50.1% WR (n=222) — overconfidence warning applies strongly here
- NYY bullpen elite (3.36 ERA) may limit late-inning scoring if game becomes close
- CIN can score (Bleday 30% HR probability) but Rodriguez likely pulled early if trailing
HIGH EDGE WARNINGPARK FACTORPITCHER MISMATCHOVERS VALUEYELLOW ZONE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYY 58.0%
-20.8 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-20.8 pts
Total
8.5
+32.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →