FINAL: PHI 1 — CIN 4. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected PHI 4.9 - CIN 4.7 (PHI at 53.6% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 9.7 total runs.
PHI
4.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
CIN
4.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
PHICIN
-1.5
Run Line (PHI)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
CIN W5PHI
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.0% (2,186 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CIN
357
PHI
357
Projected
PHI 4.9 — CIN 4.7
Actual
PHI 1 — CIN 4
Pick Results
CIN @ PHI F5 OVER 4.5f5WIN+0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Chase Burns R
CIN
FF56%98 mph19% whiff
SL37%91 mph47% whiff
CH6%90 mph26% whiff
Jesús Luzardo L
PHI
ST36%86 mph47% whiff
FF25%97 mph15% whiff
CH21%86 mph40% whiff
Weather Impact
Citizens Bank Park
97°F12 mph wind
HR: 0.988 Total: 0.990
thin air, 10mph in
Bullpen Comparison
CIN
4.82ERA
5.38FIP
9.21K/9
6.26BB/9
1.54WHIP
PHI
4.37ERA
3.26FIP
10.26K/9
3.35BB/9
1.37WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-37.0% EV
-182
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-16.6% EV
-122
TOTAL OVER 8.5
+8.4% EV
+100
F5_ML AWAY
-8.1% EV
-104
F5 OVER 4.5
+6.6% EV
+104
ML HOME
-6.1% EV
-135
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CIN F5
2.5 runs
39.8% win
PHI F5
2.8 runs
45.9% win
F5 Total
5.4
NRFI
54.5%
YRFI
45.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.98
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.2
Over 0.5 HR
96%
Over 1.5 HR
82%
No HR
4%
Bryce Harper PHI30.0%
ISO: 0.328 | Barrel: 15.6% | vs Chase Burns | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Spencer Steer CIN29.6%
ISO: 0.334 | Barrel: 9.2% | vs Jesús Luzardo | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Sal Stewart CIN28.4%
ISO: 0.324 | Barrel: 13.0% | vs Jesús Luzardo | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Chase Burns
0.0 K projected
CIN | K/9: 0.0
Jesús Luzardo
0.0 K projected
PHI | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CIN8 injured
Eugenio Suarez 3B10-DAY-IL
Jose Trevino C10-DAY-IL
Rhett Lowder SP15-DAY-IL
Hunter Greene SP60-DAY-IL
Caleb Ferguson RP15-DAY-IL
Connor Burns CDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
PHI8 injured
Kyle Schwarber DHDAY-TO-DAY
Kyle Backhus RP15-DAY-IL
Zach Pop RP15-DAY-IL
Keaton Anthony 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Johan Rojas CFSUSPENSION
Rene Pinto CDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
PHI 53.6%
-5.1 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-5.1 pts
Total
8.5
+8.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →