CIN vs PHI prediction for May 20, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects PHI 3.8 - CIN 5.5. CIN is favored with a 63.6% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 9.3 total runs.
PHI
3.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
CIN
5.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
PHICIN
-1.5
Run Line (PHI)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 66.3% (2,197 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CIN
467
PHI
246
Projected
PHI 3.8 — CIN 5.5
Actual
PHI 4 — CIN 9
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Andrew Abbott L
CIN
FF47%93 mph6% whiff
ST20%82 mph25% whiff
CH19%86 mph49% whiff
Aaron Nola R
PHI
KC31%78 mph37% whiff
FF28%92 mph13% whiff
SI18%91 mph9% whiff
Weather Impact
Citizens Bank Park
93°F11 mph wind
HR: 0.983 Total: 0.987
thin air, 11mph in
Bullpen Comparison
CIN
4.74ERA
5.31FIP
9.31K/9
6.20BB/9
1.52WHIP
PHI
4.40ERA
3.28FIP
10.23K/9
3.45BB/9
1.38WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-35.8% EV
+134
ML AWAY
+35.7% EV
+128
F5_ML HOME
-33.3% EV
-141
ML HOME
-32.8% EV
-152
F5_ML AWAY
+29.3% EV
+112
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-14.9% EV
-161
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CIN F5
3.1 runs
57.3% win
PHI F5
1.9 runs
28.8% win
F5 Total
5.0
NRFI
54.2%
YRFI
45.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.96
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.9
Over 0.5 HR
94%
Over 1.5 HR
78%
No HR
6%
JJ Bleday CIN30.0%
ISO: 0.400 | Barrel: 20.0% | vs Aaron Nola | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Elly De La Cruz CIN30.0%
ISO: 0.194 | Barrel: 13.9% | vs Aaron Nola | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Sal Stewart CIN30.0%
ISO: 0.203 | Barrel: 12.8% | vs Aaron Nola | Park: 1.02x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Andrew Abbott
0.0 K projected
CIN | K/9: 0.0
Aaron Nola
0.0 K projected
PHI | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CIN8 injured
Emilio Pagan RP15-DAY-IL
Eugenio Suarez 3B10-DAY-IL
Jose Trevino C10-DAY-IL
Rhett Lowder SP15-DAY-IL
Hunter Greene SP60-DAY-IL
Caleb Ferguson RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
PHI8 injured
Kyle Schwarber DHDAY-TO-DAY
Kyle Backhus RP15-DAY-IL
Zach Pop RP15-DAY-IL
Keaton Anthony 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Johan Rojas CFSUSPENSION
Rene Pinto CDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CIN 63.6%
-35.8 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-35.8 pts
Total
9.5
+5.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →