CIN vs PIT prediction for June 29, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects PIT 5.9 - CIN 4.1. PIT is favored with a 68.7% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 10.0 total runs.
PIT
5.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
CIN
4.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
PITCIN
-1.5
Run Line (PIT)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 65.9% (2,485 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CIN
246
PIT
468
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Chase Burns R
CIN
FF56%98 mph17% whiff
SL37%91 mph49% whiff
CH6%90 mph29% whiff
Jared Jones R
PIT
FF39%99 mph22% whiff
SL33%90 mph31% whiff
CH18%93 mph34% whiff
Weather Impact
PNC Park
79°F2 mph wind
HR: 1.054 Total: 1.028
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
CIN
4.59ERA
5.23FIP
8.86K/9
5.87BB/9
1.53WHIP
PIT
4.50ERA
4.23FIP
9.39K/9
4.70BB/9
1.41WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-51.4% EV
-204
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
+33.8% EV
+168
ML AWAY
-27.7% EV
+112
F5_ML AWAY
-25.4% EV
-110
ML HOME
+16.0% EV
-132
F5_ML HOME
+14.6% EV
-114
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CIN F5
2.3 runs
31.4% win
PIT F5
3.4 runs
56.9% win
F5 Total
5.7
NRFI
45.0%
YRFI
55.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.29
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.0
Over 0.5 HR
95%
Over 1.5 HR
80%
No HR
5%
JJ Bleday CIN30.0%
ISO: 0.350 | Barrel: 18.0% | vs Jared Jones | Park: 0.95x Platoon: 1.12x
Elly De La Cruz CIN30.0%
ISO: 0.182 | Barrel: 13.2% | vs Jared Jones | Park: 0.95x Platoon: 1.12x
Brandon Lowe PIT30.0%
ISO: 0.312 | Barrel: 15.3% | vs Chase Burns | Park: 0.95x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Chase Burns
0.0 K projected
CIN | K/9: 0.0
Jared Jones
0.0 K projected
PIT | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CIN8 injured
Blake Dunn CFDAY-TO-DAY
Tony Santillan RP15-DAY-IL
Hunter Greene SP60-DAY-IL
Emilio Pagan RP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Williamson SP60-DAY-IL
Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
PIT8 injured
Jared Jones SPDAY-TO-DAY
Wilber Dotel RP15-DAY-IL
Spencer Horwitz 1B10-DAY-IL
Oneil Cruz CF10-DAY-IL
Anthony Solometo SPDAY-TO-DAY
Mitch Jebb LFDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
PIT 68.7%
+33.8 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+33.8 pts
Total
9.0
+1.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →