CIN vs STL prediction for June 5, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects STL 4.8 - CIN 5.6. CIN is favored with a 54.4% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 10.4 total runs.
STL
4.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
CIN
5.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
STLCIN
-1.5
Run Line (STL)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.0% (2,155 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CIN
468
STL
357
Projected
STL 4.8 — CIN 5.6
Actual
STL 10 — CIN 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Brady Singer R
CIN
SI47%91 mph10% whiff
SL33%82 mph27% whiff
ST11%81 mph37% whiff
Kyle Leahy R
STL
FF30%94 mph12% whiff
CU15%82 mph29% whiff
SL15%89 mph16% whiff
Weather Impact
Busch Stadium
89°F12 mph wind
HR: 1.008 Total: 1.001
thin air, 7mph in
Bullpen Comparison
CIN
4.61ERA
5.26FIP
9.03K/9
5.79BB/9
1.48WHIP
STL
4.28ERA
4.24FIP
8.33K/9
4.27BB/9
1.37WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-26.7% EV
-175
TOTAL UNDER 9.0
-21.9% EV
-106
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-18.8% EV
+146
ML HOME
-18.3% EV
-143
F5_ML HOME
-16.6% EV
-141
ML AWAY
+14.3% EV
+120
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CIN F5
3.1 runs
46.8% win
STL F5
2.8 runs
40.6% win
F5 Total
5.8
NRFI
51.7%
YRFI
48.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.07
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.1
Over 0.5 HR
95%
Over 1.5 HR
81%
No HR
5%
JJ Bleday CIN30.0%
ISO: 0.380 | Barrel: 19.0% | vs Kyle Leahy | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Nathaniel Lowe CIN30.0%
ISO: 0.311 | Barrel: 15.7% | vs Kyle Leahy | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Sal Stewart CIN30.0%
ISO: 0.190 | Barrel: 12.0% | vs Kyle Leahy | Park: 0.98x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Brady Singer
0.0 K projected
CIN | K/9: 0.0
Kyle Leahy
0.0 K projected
STL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CIN8 injured
Jose Trevino C10-DAY-IL
Rhett Lowder SP15-DAY-IL
Graham Ashcraft RP60-DAY-IL
Elly De La Cruz SS10-DAY-IL
Emilio Pagan RP15-DAY-IL
Pierce Johnson RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
STL8 injured
JJ Wetherholt 2BDAY-TO-DAY
Ryan Fernandez RP15-DAY-IL
Ramon Urias 3B10-DAY-IL
Nathan Church LF10-DAY-IL
Packy Naughton RPDAY-TO-DAY
Sem Robberse SPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE38.9% WR (n=6)
AWAY CIN at +120 shows 14.3% ML edge (52.0% prob) — EXTREME edge in disabled market AND RED away zone (46.5% historical WR). However, REASON for edge is REAL: Leahy (C+, 4.59 ERA) vs Singer (C+, 6.67 ERA) = massive 2.08-run pitcher mismatch. Singer is bottom-5 in slate (only Gusto 9.72 worse). F5 AWAY LEAN at 8.6% edge confirms early-game value. Pitcher advantage is legitimate but falls into high-edge trap. LEAN small.
Key Factors
- Pitcher mismatch MASSIVE: Singer 6.67 ERA (16th worst in MLB) vs Leahy 4.59 ERA = 2.08-run gap
- Singer K/BB concerning: 15% K-rate, 7% BB — low strikeout potential, high contact. CIN can damage him
- F5 AWAY edge 8.6% (enabled, 51.2% prob) is MORE reliable than full ML 14.3% — early-game volatility works for edge
- Weather: 88.9°F, 7.2 mph wind IN — slight run suppression (-0.1 runs), but Singer quality is main driver
- STL bullpen solid: 4.28 ERA limits damage if CIN scores early
Risk Factors
- 14.3% edge is WELL ABOVE thresholds and RED zone for away dogs (38.9% WR sample tiny at n=6). Model may overestimate
- CIN road team against division rival STL — psychological factors underweighted
- STL lineup has bombs (Bleday 38% ISO, Lowe 31% ISO) — can catch up if Singer escapes early
HIGH EDGE WARNINGPITCHER MISMATCHRED ZONE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CIN 54.4%
-18.8 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-18.8 pts
Total
9.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →