CIN vs STL prediction for June 6, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects STL 5.6 - CIN 5.3. STL is favored with a 54.0% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 10.9 total runs.
STL
5.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
CIN
5.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
STLCIN
-1.5
Run Line (STL)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.7% (2,183 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CIN
357
STL
468
Projected
STL 5.6 — CIN 5.3
Actual
STL 6 — CIN 5
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Nick Lodolo L
CIN
FF26%94 mph24% whiff
CH25%89 mph18% whiff
CU25%82 mph40% whiff
Matthew Liberatore L
STL
FF32%94 mph10% whiff
SL23%86 mph34% whiff
CU15%79 mph33% whiff
Weather Impact
Busch Stadium
91°F7 mph wind
HR: 1.024 Total: 1.010
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
CIN
4.75ERA
5.28FIP
9.07K/9
5.94BB/9
1.51WHIP
STL
4.28ERA
4.24FIP
8.33K/9
4.27BB/9
1.37WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-37.5% EV
-196
TOTAL UNDER 9.0
-27.2% EV
-104
F5_ML AWAY
-10.4% EV
-106
F5 OVER 4.5
+8.1% EV
-141
ML AWAY
-4.4% EV
+108
ML HOME
-3.3% EV
-127
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CIN F5
3.1 runs
39.9% win
STL F5
3.4 runs
48.1% win
F5 Total
6.5
NRFI
43.3%
YRFI
56.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.31
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.2
Over 0.5 HR
96%
Over 1.5 HR
83%
No HR
4%
JJ Bleday CIN30.0%
ISO: 0.206 | Barrel: 18.2% | vs Matthew Liberatore | Park: 0.98x
Sal Stewart CIN30.0%
ISO: 0.280 | Barrel: 12.1% | vs Matthew Liberatore | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Spencer Steer CIN30.0%
ISO: 0.385 | Barrel: 9.2% | vs Matthew Liberatore | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Nick Lodolo
0.0 K projected
CIN | K/9: 0.0
Matthew Liberatore
0.0 K projected
STL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CIN8 injured
Jose Trevino C10-DAY-IL
Rhett Lowder SP15-DAY-IL
Graham Ashcraft RP60-DAY-IL
Elly De La Cruz SS10-DAY-IL
Emilio Pagan RP15-DAY-IL
Pierce Johnson RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
STL8 injured
JJ Wetherholt 2BDAY-TO-DAY
Ryan Fernandez RP15-DAY-IL
Ramon Urias 3B10-DAY-IL
Nathan Church LF10-DAY-IL
Packy Naughton RPDAY-TO-DAY
Sem Robberse SPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1
This game already resolved: STL beat CIN 6-5. Lars Nootbaar homered in 8th inning. Matthew Liberatore (STL, 4.70 ERA) vs Nick Lodolo (CIN, 5.62 ERA) saw STL pull out close win on power. Remove from today's analysis.
DATA INTEGRITY
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
STL 54.0%
+2.0 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+2.0 pts
Total
9.0
+1.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →