CLE vs CWS prediction for June 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CWS 4.7 - CLE 5.1. CLE is favored with a 50.8% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 9.9 total runs.
CWS
4.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
CLE
5.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
CWSCLE
+1.5
Run Line (CWS)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.6% (2,512 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CLE
357
CWS
357
Projected
CWS 4.7 — CLE 5.1
Actual
CWS 6 — CLE 5
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Gavin Williams R
CLE
ST26%87 mph41% whiff
FF24%97 mph26% whiff
CU22%83 mph27% whiff
Anthony Kay L
CWS
FF25%96 mph16% whiff
ST21%82 mph30% whiff
SI18%95 mph16% whiff
Weather Impact
Guaranteed Rate Field
64°F12 mph wind
HR: 1.051 Total: 1.028
6mph out
Bullpen Comparison
CLE
3.52ERA
3.55FIP
10.51K/9
3.50BB/9
1.23WHIP
CWS
4.29ERA
4.67FIP
8.64K/9
4.97BB/9
1.34WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-37.4% EV
-189
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-27.6% EV
-118
TOTAL OVER 7.5
+19.3% EV
-104
F5 OVER 4.5
+14.8% EV
+114
F5_ML AWAY
-5.7% EV
-123
ML HOME
-4.5% EV
-106
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CLE F5
2.9 runs
44.7% win
CWS F5
2.7 runs
41.3% win
F5 Total
5.6
NRFI
48.9%
YRFI
51.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.15
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.5
Over 0.5 HR
91%
Over 1.5 HR
72%
No HR
9%
Colson Montgomery CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.249 | Barrel: 14.9% | vs Gavin Williams | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Brayan Rocchio CLE23.4%
ISO: 0.174 | Barrel: 6.2% | vs Anthony Kay | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Miguel Vargas CWS21.9%
ISO: 0.200 | Barrel: 14.0% | vs Gavin Williams | Park: 1.01x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Gavin Williams
0.0 K projected
CLE | K/9: 0.0
Anthony Kay
0.0 K projected
CWS | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CLE5 injured
Chase DeLauter RF10-DAY-IL
Tanner Burns SPDAY-TO-DAY
Jose Ramirez 3B10-DAY-IL
Angel Martinez LF10-DAY-IL
Carlos Hernandez RPDAY-TO-DAY
CWSHealthy
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=222)
Model projects 9.86 total runs vs market 7.5 — OVER 7.5 at 19.3% edge (60.9% model prob). Gavin Williams (27% K-rate, B grade) dominant for CLE away; Anthony Kay (17% K-rate, C+ grade) weak for CWS home. Market severely underpricing runs in a mismatch environment. F5 OVER 4.5 strong at 14.8% edge.
Key Factors
- Pitcher quality: Gavin Williams (27% K-rate, B grade) vastly superior to Anthony Kay (17% K-rate, C+ grade) — 10pt K-rate gap = elite vs below-average
- Model total 9.86 vs market 7.5 = 2.36-run OVER edge at 19.3% (60.9% prob) — massive edge
- F5 OVER 4.5 edge 14.8% (53.6% prob) — confirming early offensive momentum
- Both offenses functional (Colson Montgomery 30% HR prob for CWS, Brayan Rocchio 23.4%) — some run expectation
- Guaranteed Rate Field neutral conditions (64.1F, 6 mph out) — no park bias
Risk Factors
- Zone profile YELLOW; totals unreliable on this slate
- 19.3% edge is high; could indicate model overconfidence on Williams' dominance translating to under-hitting
- CWS home field slight advantage not reflected in K-rate gap; late-game momentum could help CWS offense
TOTALS VALUEYELLOW ZONEPITCHER MISMATCHHIGH EDGE WARNING
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CLE 50.8%
-37.4 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-37.4 pts
Total
7.5
+19.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →