Who is predicted to win CLE vs CWS on June 24, 2026?

Based on 10,000 Pitch Sim v5.3 Monte Carlo simulations, CWS is favored with a 51.3% win probability. The simulation's mean projected score is CWS 4.5 - CLE 4.6.

How did CLE vs CWS on June 24, 2026 end?

Final score: CWS 3 - CLE 4. This page now shows our pre-game projection alongside the actual outcome for transparency — every Olympus Bets projection is preserved with its result.

How does Olympus Bets generate sports predictions?

Every projection is produced by a league-specific Monte Carlo simulation engine (10,000+ iterations per game), Platt-scaled and isotonic-calibrated against historical outcomes, then sized with the Kelly Criterion plus a 15% Bayesian probability shrinkage. The full methodology is documented at https://app.olympus-bets.com/methodology.

CLE vs CWS Prediction & Picks — June 24, 2026

CLE vs CWS prediction for June 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CWS 4.5 - CLE 4.6. CWS is favored with a 51.3% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 9.1 total runs.

CWS

4.5

Projected Score

VS O/U 8.5

CLE

4.6

Projected Score

Win Probability

51.3%

48.7%

CWSCLE

+1.5

Run Line (CWS)

8.5

Total Line

10,000

Simulations

☑ Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.1% (2,559 games)

Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile

CLE

357

CWS

346

Projected

CWS 4.5 — CLE 4.6

Actual

CWS 3 — CLE 4

Starting Pitcher Matchup

Tanner Bibee R

CLE

FC26%86 mph35% whiff

FF23%94 mph12% whiff

SI21%94 mph19% whiff

Erick Fedde R

CWS

ST38%82 mph20% whiff

SI27%94 mph10% whiff

FC19%90 mph14% whiff

Weather Impact

Guaranteed Rate Field

74°F9 mph wind

HR: 0.986 Total: 0.989

thin air, 9mph in

Bullpen Comparison

CLE

3.52ERA

3.55FIP

10.51K/9

3.50BB/9

1.23WHIP

CWS

4.29ERA

4.67FIP

8.64K/9

4.97BB/9

1.34WHIP

Betting Edges

RUN_LINE HOME +1.5

-32.6% EV

-175

F5_ML AWAY

-10.6% EV

-118

RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5

-10.2% EV

+146

ML AWAY

-7.1% EV

-112

TOTAL UNDER 8.5

-6.8% EV

-112

NRFI YRFI

+2.9% EV

+100

First 5 Innings & NRFI

CLE F5

2.5 runs

40.8% win

CWS F5

2.7 runs

45.4% win

F5 Total

5.1

NRFI

46.0%

YRFI

54.0%

Avg 1st Inn Runs

1.19

HR Spotlight

Avg HRs

2.6

Over 0.5 HR

93%

Over 1.5 HR

74%

No HR

Travis Bazzana CLE30.0%

ISO: 0.190 | Barrel: 7.6% | vs Erick Fedde | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x

Kyle Manzardo CLE30.0%

ISO: 0.168 | Barrel: 8.0% | vs Erick Fedde | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x

Colson Montgomery CWS30.0%

ISO: 0.249 | Barrel: 14.9% | vs Tanner Bibee | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Tanner Bibee

0.0 K projected

CLE | K/9: 0.0

Erick Fedde

0.0 K projected

CWS | K/9: 0.0

Injury Report

CLE5 injured

Chase DeLauter RF10-DAY-IL

Tanner Burns SPDAY-TO-DAY

Jose Ramirez 3B10-DAY-IL

Angel Martinez LF10-DAY-IL

Carlos Hernandez RPDAY-TO-DAY

CWSHealthy

AI Intelligence Analysis

NEUTRALYELLOW ZONE50.3% WR (n=254)

Coin-flip game with mediocre starting pitchers on both sides (Fedde 4.82 ERA vs Bibee 4.35 ERA). No compelling pitcher mismatch, market odds (-104/-112) reflect near-even matchup, weather slightly suppresses runs. No actionable edge exists.

Key Factors

Pitcher balance: Fedde 4.82 ERA (C+, low stuff) slightly worse than Bibee 4.35 ERA (B-, better command). Minimal gap.
Market alignment: Model 50.8% vs Market 51.0% — zero edge
Weather neutral: 74.3°F, 9mph in (mild under lean) but insufficient to justify totals bet

Risk Factors

All edges below minimum thresholds (ML -0.3%, F5 +2.4%)

Edge Analysis

Moneyline

CWS 51.3%

-32.6 pts

Run Line