CLE vs DET prediction for May 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects DET 3.7 - CLE 4.0. CLE is favored with a 50.8% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 7.6 total runs.
DET
3.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
CLE
4.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
DETCLE
-1.5
Run Line (DET)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.7% (2,157 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CLE
246
DET
246
Projected
DET 3.7 — CLE 4.0
Actual
DET 2 — CLE 8
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Slade Cecconi R
CLE
FF35%93 mph17% whiff
FC24%88 mph18% whiff
SI15%94 mph10% whiff
Framber Valdez L
DET
SI46%94 mph8% whiff
CU30%78 mph32% whiff
CH20%89 mph22% whiff
Weather Impact
Comerica Park
72°F23 mph wind
HR: 0.921 Total: 0.951
thin air, 22mph in
Bullpen Comparison
CLE
4.00ERA
3.92FIP
10.44K/9
3.77BB/9
1.28WHIP
DET
4.28ERA
4.21FIP
8.94K/9
4.37BB/9
1.40WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-33.0% EV
-161
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-22.8% EV
-115
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-20.9% EV
+134
ML HOME
-15.9% EV
-154
ML AWAY
+12.8% EV
+130
F5 UNDER 4.5
+10.3% EV
-118
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CLE F5
1.9 runs
36.2% win
DET F5
2.2 runs
46.3% win
F5 Total
4.0
NRFI
61.6%
YRFI
38.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.77
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.1
Over 0.5 HR
87%
Over 1.5 HR
61%
No HR
13%
Dillon Dingler DET30.0%
ISO: 0.267 | Barrel: 12.9% | vs Slade Cecconi | Park: 0.97x
Spencer Torkelson DET28.0%
ISO: 0.201 | Barrel: 8.8% | vs Slade Cecconi | Park: 0.97x
Rhys Hoskins CLE25.4%
ISO: 0.171 | Barrel: 9.2% | vs Framber Valdez | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Slade Cecconi
0.0 K projected
CLE | K/9: 0.0
Framber Valdez
0.0 K projected
DET | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CLE2 injured
Gabriel Arias SS10-DAY-IL
Carlos Hernandez RPDAY-TO-DAY
DET8 injured
Tarik Skubal SP15-DAY-IL
Troy Melton RP60-DAY-IL
Justin Verlander SP60-DAY-IL
Ty Madden SP15-DAY-IL
Gleyber Torres 2B10-DAY-IL
Kerry Carpenter RF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALRED ZONE45.1% WR (n=155)
Framber Valdez (4.67 ERA, B- grade) vs Slade Cecconi (6.05 ERA, C+ grade) — pitcher mismatch favors home, but market is pricing it correctly at -153 (60.5% implied). Model 50.8% away win prob means market has 10% disagreement, and model AWAY ML edge is 12.8% (too high). Away ML is RED ZONE; CLE beat DET 8-2 yesterday (recency bias). Cold weather (72F, 22mph wind blowing in) suppresses runs. Total 8.0 shows 3.1% edge, but totals are RED. No clear edge here — market is efficient.
Key Factors
- CLE 8-2 win yesterday — recency bias works against DET. Market correctly pricing hot CLE at -153.
- Framber Valdez 4.67 ERA vs Cecconi 6.05 ERA = 1.38 gap (modest mismatch favoring home)
- Strong wind (22mph in) suppresses runs, but unders are RED ZONE (46.9% WR, disabled)
- Cold weather (72F) reduces scoring baseline ~0.3 runs
- AWAY ML RED ZONE at 45.1% WR despite 12.8% model edge — market efficiency
Risk Factors
- Away ML RED ZONE (45.1% WR, n=155) — systematic underperformance
- 12.8% edge is high; high edges are historically underperforming (30% WR on 15%+ picks)
- Recency bias: Market already factoring CLE dominance, no additional edge
RED ZONE AWAY MLHIGH EDGE WARNINGWEATHER IMPACTRECENCY BIASMODEL MARKET CONFLICT
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CLE 50.8%
-20.9 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-20.9 pts
Total
8.0
+3.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →