FINAL: DET 3 — CLE 4. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected DET 3.1 - CLE 3.7 (CLE at 54.2% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 6.8 total runs.
DET
3.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
CLE
3.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
DETCLE
+1.5
Run Line (DET)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.0% (2,186 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CLE
246
DET
135
Projected
DET 3.1 — CLE 3.7
Actual
DET 3 — CLE 4
Pick Results
CLE @ DET F5 UNDER 4.5f5LOSS-1.00u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Parker Messick L
CLE
FF31%94 mph17% whiff
CH25%85 mph44% whiff
SI14%92 mph7% whiff
Keider Montero R
DET
FF34%94 mph10% whiff
SI20%94 mph7% whiff
SL18%85 mph23% whiff
Weather Impact
Comerica Park
87°F17 mph wind
HR: 0.960 Total: 0.974
thin air, 16mph in
Bullpen Comparison
CLE
3.61ERA
3.85FIP
10.40K/9
3.80BB/9
1.22WHIP
DET
4.38ERA
4.27FIP
8.97K/9
4.44BB/9
1.41WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-39.1% EV
-128
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-34.0% EV
-110
F5 UNDER 4.5
+21.3% EV
-125
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-18.6% EV
+106
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
+14.8% EV
-110
ML AWAY
-10.0% EV
-159
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CLE F5
1.7 runs
42.4% win
DET F5
1.6 runs
36.5% win
F5 Total
3.3
NRFI
66.5%
YRFI
33.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.60
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.0
Over 0.5 HR
86%
Over 1.5 HR
59%
No HR
14%
Angel Martínez CLE30.0%
ISO: 0.136 | Barrel: 13.6% | vs Keider Montero | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Chase DeLauter CLE23.3%
ISO: 0.228 | Barrel: 10.3% | vs Keider Montero | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Daniel Schneemann CLE22.5%
ISO: 0.152 | Barrel: 8.2% | vs Keider Montero | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Parker Messick
0.0 K projected
CLE | K/9: 0.0
Keider Montero
0.0 K projected
DET | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CLE3 injured
Peyton Pallette RPPATERNITY
Gabriel Arias SS10-DAY-IL
Carlos Hernandez RPDAY-TO-DAY
DET8 injured
Troy Melton RP60-DAY-IL
Kerry Carpenter RF10-DAY-IL
Tarik Skubal SP15-DAY-IL
Justin Verlander SP60-DAY-IL
Ty Madden SP15-DAY-IL
Gleyber Torres 2B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CLE 54.2%
-39.1 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-39.1 pts
Total
8.0
+14.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →