CLE vs DET prediction for May 20, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects DET 3.4 - CLE 4.9. CLE is favored with a 55.2% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 8.2 total runs.
DET
3.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
CLE
4.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
DETCLE
+1.5
Run Line (DET)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.3% (2,197 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CLE
357
DET
135
Projected
DET 3.4 — CLE 4.9
Actual
DET 2 — CLE 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Tanner Bibee R
CLE
FC27%86 mph38% whiff
FF25%94 mph9% whiff
CH19%81 mph38% whiff
R TBD
DET
Weather Impact
Comerica Park
60°F11 mph wind
HR: 1.066 Total: 1.038
10mph out
Bullpen Comparison
CLE
3.52ERA
3.82FIP
10.54K/9
3.88BB/9
1.23WHIP
DET
4.34ERA
4.21FIP
8.93K/9
4.35BB/9
1.39WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-49.8% EV
-169
F5_ML HOME
-20.7% EV
-104
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
+9.8% EV
+140
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-9.6% EV
-122
F5_ML AWAY
+9.0% EV
-120
ML HOME
-7.8% EV
+104
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CLE F5
2.6 runs
51.6% win
DET F5
1.8 runs
31.4% win
F5 Total
4.4
NRFI
58.5%
YRFI
41.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.84
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.6
Over 0.5 HR
79%
Over 1.5 HR
47%
No HR
21%
Matt Vierling DET24.4%
ISO: 0.171 | Barrel: 8.9% | vs Tanner Bibee | Park: 0.97x
David Fry CLE15.2%
ISO: 0.307 | Barrel: 8.4% | Park: 0.97x
Angel Martínez CLE14.9%
ISO: 0.133 | Barrel: 13.3% | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Tanner Bibee
0.0 K projected
CLE | K/9: 0.0
0.0 K projected
DET | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CLE3 injured
Gabriel Arias SS10-DAY-IL
Peyton Pallette RPPATERNITY
Carlos Hernandez RPDAY-TO-DAY
DET8 injured
Gleyber Torres 2B10-DAY-IL
Jackson Jobe SP60-DAY-IL
Troy Melton RP60-DAY-IL
Javier Baez SS10-DAY-IL
Ty Madden SP15-DAY-IL
Kerry Carpenter RF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CLE 55.2%
-49.8 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-49.8 pts
Total
7.5
+0.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →