CLE vs DET prediction for May 21, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects DET 4.0 - CLE 5.3. CLE is favored with a 53.6% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 9.3 total runs.
DET
4.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
CLE
5.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
DETCLE
-1.5
Run Line (DET)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.9% (2,221 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CLE
357
DET
246
Projected
DET 4.0 — CLE 5.3
Actual
DET 1 — CLE 3
Pick Results
Joey Cantillo OVER 5.5 Ksk_propsWIN+1.88u
Casey Mize OVER 4.5 Ksk_propsLOSS-1.00u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Joey Cantillo L
CLE
FF44%92 mph14% whiff
CH27%80 mph40% whiff
CU17%79 mph32% whiff
Casey Mize R
DET
FF32%93 mph19% whiff
FS29%87 mph33% whiff
SL24%88 mph31% whiff
Weather Impact
Comerica Park
61°F11 mph wind
HR: 1.065 Total: 1.037
11mph out
Bullpen Comparison
CLE
3.81ERA
3.88FIP
10.55K/9
3.90BB/9
1.28WHIP
DET
4.21ERA
4.11FIP
8.97K/9
4.31BB/9
1.38WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-24.5% EV
+176
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-24.3% EV
-213
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-22.7% EV
-123
F5_ML HOME
-20.6% EV
-130
TOTAL OVER 7.5
+15.7% EV
+102
ML HOME
-13.0% EV
-120
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CLE F5
2.8 runs
49.3% win
DET F5
2.2 runs
35.5% win
F5 Total
5.1
NRFI
55.6%
YRFI
44.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.96
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.7
Over 0.5 HR
81%
Over 1.5 HR
50%
No HR
19%
Dillon Dingler DET20.8%
ISO: 0.123 | Barrel: 12.0% | vs Joey Cantillo | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Angel Martínez CLE19.8%
ISO: 0.136 | Barrel: 13.6% | vs Casey Mize | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Matt Vierling DET17.9%
ISO: 0.190 | Barrel: 8.6% | vs Joey Cantillo | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Joey Cantillo
0.0 K projected
CLE | K/9: 0.0
Casey Mize
0.0 K projected
DET | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CLE3 injured
Gabriel Arias SS10-DAY-IL
Peyton Pallette RPPATERNITY
Carlos Hernandez RPDAY-TO-DAY
DET8 injured
Justin Verlander SP60-DAY-IL
Gleyber Torres 2B10-DAY-IL
Jackson Jobe SP60-DAY-IL
Troy Melton RP60-DAY-IL
Javier Baez SS10-DAY-IL
Ty Madden SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1RED ZONE41.9% WR (n=5)
Model shows +6.0% CLE ML edge in profitable direction (away underdog), but RED ZONE away MLs with 5-10% edges have only 41.9% historical WR (n=5, expanding to 45.1% on broader away ML zone), directly contradicting the simulation despite cold-weather wind favorability.
Key Factors
- CLE on 6-game winning streak vs DET's 4-game sweep loss (recent form momentum to CLE)
- Cantillo 22.4% K-rate decent despite 3.67 ERA; Mize 2.62 ERA but just 8.0% K-rate — strikeout quality favors Cantillo
- Comerica 11 mph outfield wind (tail 10.7) suppresses cold-weather effect, slight OVER edge +15.7% (weather supports higher-scoring game)
- CLE bullpen 3.81 ERA vs DET 4.21 ERA (marginal bullpen advantage CLE)
- RED ZONE historical: away ML 5-10% edges show 41.9% WR (n=5), away ML combo 40.7% WR (n=74) — both sub-50%
Risk Factors
- RED ZONE away ML: Historical 40-45% WR contradicts +6% edge. Away underdog matrix shows systematic underperformance.
- Edge below calibration min (6% vs 8% threshold) — not cleared for standard BET
- High overunder (9.3 vs 7.5) adds variance risk; if game played closer to market total, losing outcome more likely
RED ZONEMODEL MARKET CONFLICTSHARP SUPPORTWEATHER IMPACTBULLPEN FATIGUE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CLE 53.6%
-24.5 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-24.5 pts
Total
7.5
+15.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →