CLE vs HOU prediction for June 20, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects HOU 5.7 - CLE 4.3. HOU is favored with a 59.7% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 10.0 total runs.
HOU
5.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
CLE
4.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
HOUCLE
-1.5
Run Line (HOU)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.7% (2,480 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CLE
246
HOU
468
Projected
HOU 5.7 — CLE 4.3
Actual
HOU 1 — CLE 8
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Joey Cantillo L
CLE
FF40%92 mph13% whiff
CH29%80 mph37% whiff
CU20%79 mph30% whiff
Spencer Arrighetti R
HOU
CU34%77 mph35% whiff
FF31%92 mph19% whiff
ST14%80 mph23% whiff
Weather Impact
Minute Maid Park
77°F13 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 0.965 Total: 0.977
12mph in
Bullpen Comparison
CLE
3.52ERA
3.55FIP
10.51K/9
3.50BB/9
1.23WHIP
HOU
4.13ERA
4.29FIP
8.50K/9
4.68BB/9
1.32WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-45.1% EV
-164
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-19.9% EV
-120
F5_ML AWAY
-18.9% EV
+116
TOTAL OVER 8.5
+11.3% EV
-102
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
+9.8% EV
+136
ML AWAY
-7.5% EV
+128
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CLE F5
2.2 runs
30.7% win
HOU F5
3.4 runs
55.7% win
F5 Total
5.6
NRFI
49.2%
YRFI
50.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.12
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.7
Over 0.5 HR
93%
Over 1.5 HR
74%
No HR
7%
Yordan Alvarez HOU30.0%
ISO: 0.330 | Barrel: 18.7% | vs Joey Cantillo | Park: 0.99x
Christian Walker HOU30.0%
ISO: 0.241 | Barrel: 14.4% | vs Joey Cantillo | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Cam Smith HOU18.6%
ISO: 0.161 | Barrel: 7.0% | vs Joey Cantillo | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Joey Cantillo
0.0 K projected
CLE | K/9: 0.0
Spencer Arrighetti
0.0 K projected
HOU | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CLE5 injured
Chase DeLauter RF10-DAY-IL
Tanner Burns SPDAY-TO-DAY
Jose Ramirez 3B10-DAY-IL
Angel Martinez LF10-DAY-IL
Carlos Hernandez RPDAY-TO-DAY
HOU8 injured
Cristian Javier SP60-DAY-IL
Lance McCullers Jr. SP15-DAY-IL
Ronel Blanco SP60-DAY-IL
Braden Shewmake SS10-DAY-IL
LaMonte Wade Jr. 1B10-DAY-IL
Nick Allen SS10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEANYELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=217)
Spencer Arrighetti (HOU, 2.78 ERA, 0.423 B- grade, 8.0 K/9, Bayesian 2.7756 ERA) vs Joey Cantillo (CLE, 4.73 ERA, 0.488 B- grade, 8.0 K/9, Bayesian 4.7304 ERA). Arrighetti has a dominant ERA advantage (2.78 vs 4.73). Market overvalues HOU at -151 (60.2% implied) — Arrighetti is suppressing runs, suggesting UNDER 8.5 should have value. Model projects 10.04 runs, market 8.5. OVER edge 11.3% is actionable. Heat (77F, retractable closed, wind 13.2 mph in @ 12.2 mph eff) suppresses via 0.977 multiplier.
Key Factors
- Arrighetti ERA elite: 2.78 (top-tier) vs Cantillo 4.73 (mediocre) = 1.95 ERA gap, ~1.5 run swing to HOU
- OVER edge 11.3%: Model 56.2% vs market ~44.8% implied from -110 OVER odds
- Wind suppression: 12.2 mph in (0.977 multiplier) reduces ~0.5 runs
- RUN_LINE HOME -1.5 edge: 9.8% also supports HOU dominance, but TOTAL market undervalues run volume
- F5 OVER 4.5 edge: 2.7% is weak; most runs come late innings with Arrighetti
Risk Factors
- Pitcher dominance (Arrighetti) suggests UNDER is correct, contradicting OVER lean
- High-edge (11.3%) bets show 38.1% historical WR when model prob >65%; model shows 56.2% prob (below threshold) but edge is high
- CLE lineup capable of offensive explosion if Arrighetti gives up early runs
PITCHER ADVANTAGEWEATHER IMPACTTOTALS VALUE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
HOU 59.7%
+9.8 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+9.8 pts
Total
8.5
+11.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →