CLE vs HOU prediction for June 21, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects HOU 5.6 - CLE 4.3. HOU is favored with a 59.4% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 9.9 total runs.
HOU
5.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
CLE
4.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
HOUCLE
-1.5
Run Line (HOU)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.2% (2,497 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CLE
246
HOU
468
Projected
HOU 5.6 — CLE 4.3
Actual
HOU 2 — CLE 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Slade Cecconi R
CLE
FF30%93 mph16% whiff
FC26%88 mph21% whiff
SI18%93 mph8% whiff
Kai-Wei Teng R
HOU
ST35%85 mph31% whiff
FF26%94 mph19% whiff
SI18%93 mph17% whiff
Weather Impact
Minute Maid Park
85°F11 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.014 Total: 1.005
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
CLE
3.52ERA
3.55FIP
10.51K/9
3.50BB/9
1.23WHIP
HOU
4.13ERA
4.29FIP
8.50K/9
4.68BB/9
1.32WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-47.2% EV
-192
F5_ML AWAY
-18.3% EV
+110
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
+18.0% EV
+160
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-14.7% EV
-105
ML AWAY
-10.7% EV
+116
TOTAL OVER 8.5
+5.2% EV
-115
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CLE F5
2.2 runs
31.7% win
HOU F5
3.3 runs
54.1% win
F5 Total
5.5
NRFI
49.2%
YRFI
50.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.14
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.8
Over 0.5 HR
94%
Over 1.5 HR
77%
No HR
6%
Yordan Alvarez HOU30.0%
ISO: 0.323 | Barrel: 18.7% | vs Slade Cecconi | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Isaac Paredes HOU29.0%
ISO: 0.208 | Barrel: 8.8% | vs Slade Cecconi | Park: 0.99x
Christian Walker HOU22.1%
ISO: 0.255 | Barrel: 14.4% | vs Slade Cecconi | Park: 0.99x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Slade Cecconi
0.0 K projected
CLE | K/9: 0.0
Kai-Wei Teng
0.0 K projected
HOU | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CLE5 injured
Chase DeLauter RF10-DAY-IL
Tanner Burns SPDAY-TO-DAY
Jose Ramirez 3B10-DAY-IL
Angel Martinez LF10-DAY-IL
Carlos Hernandez RPDAY-TO-DAY
HOU8 injured
Cristian Javier SP60-DAY-IL
Lance McCullers Jr. SP15-DAY-IL
Ronel Blanco SP60-DAY-IL
Braden Shewmake SS10-DAY-IL
LaMonte Wade Jr. 1B10-DAY-IL
Nick Allen SS10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1YELLOW ZONE54.6% WR (n=116)
Home favorite (HOU 59.4%) with elite pitcher advantage (Teng 4.65 ERA is WORSE than expected, but Cecconi even worse with TBD data) — market shows -135 (57.5%) but model projects 58.7%. Small edge (+2.1%) but combined with F5 value (+14.0% edge) and OVER value (+5.2%) creates multi-market confirmation.
Key Factors
- Home favorite in YELLOW zone (54.6% WR, n=116) + combo GREEN (57.9% WR, n=65) — strong historical support
- F5 ML edge +14.0% on home (61.1% model prob vs 52.8% market implied) — early-game mismatch suggests home control
- HOU bullpen solid (4.13 ERA, 1.09 quality) with elite setup (2.05 ERA setup arm)
- Market at -135 is fair but model +1.2% edge + F5 confirmation makes this lean-worthy
Risk Factors
- Edge only +1.2% on ML — moderate, not strong conviction
- Cecconi (away SP) has no Bayesian ERA — introduces uncertainty
PITCHER MISMATCHML VALUEF5 VALUEHOME FAVORITEGREEN COMBO
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
HOU 59.4%
+18.0 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+18.0 pts
Total
8.5
+5.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →