CLE vs KC prediction for May 4, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects KC 4.5 - CLE 4.7. KC is favored with a 50.3% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 9.3 total runs.
KC
4.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
CLE
4.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
KCCLE
-1.5
Run Line (KC)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
CLEKC L5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CLE
357
KC
346
Projected
KC 4.5 — CLE 4.7
Actual
KC 6 — CLE 2
Pick Results
Michael Wacha OVER 4.5 Ksk_propsLOSS-1.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Tanner Bibee R
CLE
FC29%86 mph35% whiff
FF26%94 mph7% whiff
CH18%81 mph36% whiff
Michael Wacha R
KC
FF28%93 mph21% whiff
CH23%80 mph29% whiff
FC17%89 mph20% whiff
Weather Impact
Kauffman Stadium
82°F10 mph wind
HR: 1.007 Total: 1.000
thin air, 9mph in
Bullpen Comparison
CLE
4.27ERA
4.03FIP
9.83K/9
3.73BB/9
1.31WHIP
KC
4.71ERA
4.90FIP
9.32K/9
5.54BB/9
1.44WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-34.9% EV
-204
TOTAL OVER 9.0
-15.6% EV
-112
TOTAL UNDER 9.0
-8.2% EV
-108
ML HOME
-7.3% EV
-122
F5_ML HOME
-7.3% EV
-132
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-5.7% EV
+168
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CLE F5
2.4 runs
40.7% win
KC F5
2.6 runs
44.3% win
F5 Total
5.0
NRFI
52.8%
YRFI
47.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.01
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.7
Over 0.5 HR
92%
Over 1.5 HR
74%
No HR
8%
Daniel Schneemann CLE30.0%
ISO: 0.206 | Barrel: 11.3% | vs Michael Wacha | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Vinnie Pasquantino KC30.0%
ISO: 0.205 | Barrel: 8.1% | vs Tanner Bibee | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Carter Jensen KC30.0%
ISO: 0.271 | Barrel: 11.5% | vs Tanner Bibee | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Tanner Bibee
0.0 K projected
CLE | K/9: 0.0
Michael Wacha
0.0 K projected
KC | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CLE4 injured
Gabriel Arias SS10-DAY-IL
Carlos Hernandez RPDAY-TO-DAY
Shawn Armstrong RP15-DAY-IL
Andrew Walters RP15-DAY-IL
KC8 injured
Carlos Estevez RP15-DAY-IL
Bailey Falter RP15-DAY-IL
Stephen Kolek SP15-DAY-IL
Jonathan India 2B10-DAY-IL
James McArthur RP60-DAY-IL
Tyson Guerrero RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
KC 50.3%
-5.7 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-5.7 pts
Total
9.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →