CLE vs KC prediction for May 5, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects KC 3.9 - CLE 3.6. KC is favored with a 54.6% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.5 total runs.
KC
3.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
CLE
3.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
KCCLE
+1.5
Run Line (KC)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
CLEKC L5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CLE
246
KC
246
Projected
KC 3.9 — CLE 3.6
Actual
KC 5 — CLE 3
Pick Results
Gavin Williams OVER 5.5 Ksk_propsWIN+0.85u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Gavin Williams R
CLE
FF29%96 mph26% whiff
ST27%87 mph46% whiff
CU18%83 mph21% whiff
Stephen Kolek R
KC
FF25%94 mph14% whiff
SI24%94 mph11% whiff
SL16%85 mph21% whiff
Weather Impact
Kauffman Stadium
54°F5 mph wind
HR: 1.034 Total: 1.018
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
CLE
4.21ERA
4.11FIP
9.67K/9
3.73BB/9
1.30WHIP
KC
4.63ERA
4.86FIP
9.14K/9
5.43BB/9
1.42WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-32.8% EV
-172
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-20.4% EV
+142
F5_ML AWAY
-19.5% EV
-123
ML AWAY
-12.7% EV
-116
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-12.6% EV
-106
NRFI NRFI
+11.2% EV
-132
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CLE F5
1.7 runs
33.6% win
KC F5
2.2 runs
46.8% win
F5 Total
3.9
NRFI
66.3%
YRFI
33.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.65
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.8
Over 0.5 HR
83%
Over 1.5 HR
54%
No HR
17%
Carter Jensen KC24.6%
ISO: 0.256 | Barrel: 11.0% | vs Gavin Williams | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Jac Caglianone KC15.4%
ISO: 0.180 | Barrel: 9.5% | vs Gavin Williams | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Daniel Schneemann CLE15.2%
ISO: 0.197 | Barrel: 10.8% | vs Stephen Kolek | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Gavin Williams
0.0 K projected
CLE | K/9: 0.0
Stephen Kolek
0.0 K projected
KC | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CLE4 injured
Gabriel Arias SS10-DAY-IL
Carlos Hernandez RPDAY-TO-DAY
Shawn Armstrong RP15-DAY-IL
Andrew Walters RP15-DAY-IL
KC8 injured
Noah Cameron SPDAY-TO-DAY
Carlos Estevez RP15-DAY-IL
Bailey Falter RP15-DAY-IL
Jonathan India 2B10-DAY-IL
James McArthur RP60-DAY-IL
Tyson Guerrero RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +2GREEN ZONE61.3% WR (n=47)
Gavin Williams' elite pitching (2.92 ERA, B, 29.5% K rate) vs Stephen Kolek (TBD pitcher, no ERA data) creates perfect NRFI edge in GREEN zone (61.3% WR); NRFI avoiding batter uncertainty in first inning is our safest high-edge play.
Key Factors
- Elite SP: Gavin Williams (CLE) 2.92 ERA, B, 29.5% K rate vs Stephen Kolek (KC) N/A ERA, TBD grade — elite vs unknown
- NRFI edge 11.2% at 63.2% model prob lands in GREEN zone (61.3% WR, n=47) — our strongest profitability zone
- Cold weather (54.5F) strongly suppresses first-inning aggression — fewer teams opening with aggressive approach in cold
- KC home park (Kauffman, neutral 1.0 factor) + neutral wind (1.7 mph tail) — no park/weather help for early runs
- Williams' K rate (29.5%) likely extends to high strikeout first inning — perfect NRFI catalyst
Risk Factors
- Stephen Kolek (KC pitcher) has no ERA listed (N/A) — potential recent call-up or limited data concern
- Cold weather could suppress first-inning scoring but doesn't guarantee NRFI (runnable on warm days too)
- Market could price NRFI more accurately than model suggests given Kolek uncertainty
PITCHER MISMATCHGREEN ZONENRFI EDGECOLD WEATHERTBD PITCHER KB
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
KC 54.6%
-32.8 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-32.8 pts
Total
7.5
+3.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →