FINAL: LAD 4 — CLE 1. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected LAD 5.2 - CLE 4.9 (LAD at 54.3% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 10.1 total runs.
LAD
5.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
CLE
4.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
LADCLE
-1.5
Run Line (LAD)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CLE
357
LAD
357
Projected
LAD 5.2 — CLE 4.9
Actual
LAD 4 — CLE 1
Pick Results
OVER 8.0totalLOSS-1.00u
F5 OVER 4.5f5_totalLOSS-1.00u
CLE MLmlLOSS-1.00u
CLE @ LAD YRFInrfiLOSS-1.00u
LAD F5 MLf5_mlWIN+0.91u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Gavin Williams R
CLE
FF38%97 mph20% whiff
CU22%82 mph33% whiff
ST20%87 mph44% whiff
Yoshinobu Yamamoto R
LAD
FF33%96 mph18% whiff
FS26%91 mph40% whiff
CU18%77 mph34% whiff
Weather Impact
Dodger Stadium
64°F8 mph wind
HR: 0.980 Total: 0.986
8mph in
Bullpen Comparison
CLE
3.69ERA
3.73FIP
9.85K/9
3.85BB/9
1.18WHIP
LAD
3.48ERA
3.27FIP
10.81K/9
3.37BB/9
1.21WHIP
Betting Edges
ML AWAY
+36.4% EV
+225
F5_ML AWAY
+31.5% EV
+200
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
-31.1% EV
-110
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-27.9% EV
+102
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-25.9% EV
-122
TOTAL OVER 8.0
+24.4% EV
-110
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CLE F5
2.0 runs
39.0% win
LAD F5
2.2 runs
43.4% win
F5 Total
4.2
NRFI
59.1%
YRFI
40.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.78
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.7
Over 0.5 HR
93%
Over 1.5 HR
75%
No HR
7%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Gavin Williams
0.0 K projected
CLE | K/9: 0.0
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
0.0 K projected
LAD | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CLE4 injured
George Valera RF10-DAY-IL
Hunter Gaddis RP15-DAY-IL
Andrew Walters RP15-DAY-IL
Carlos Hernandez RPOUT
LAD8 injured
Enrique Hernandez 1B60-DAY-IL
Tommy Edman 2B10-DAY-IL
Brock Stewart RP15-DAY-IL
Jake Cousins RP15-DAY-IL
Evan Phillips RP60-DAY-IL
Blake Snell SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
LAD 54.3%
-25.9 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-25.9 pts
Total
8.0
+24.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →