CLE vs MIL prediction for June 16, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIL 5.3 - CLE 4.5. MIL is favored with a 56.8% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 9.8 total runs.
MIL
5.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
CLE
4.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
MILCLE
-1.5
Run Line (MIL)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.3% (2,386 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CLE
346
MIL
357
Projected
MIL 5.3 — CLE 4.5
Actual
MIL 2 — CLE 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Slade Cecconi R
CLE
FF31%93 mph16% whiff
FC26%88 mph21% whiff
SI18%93 mph9% whiff
Robert Gasser L
MIL
SI28%92 mph17% whiff
ST25%80 mph27% whiff
FC21%88 mph26% whiff
Weather Impact
American Family Field
69°F17 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 0.951 Total: 0.969
thin air, 16mph in
Bullpen Comparison
CLE
3.52ERA
3.55FIP
10.51K/9
3.50BB/9
1.23WHIP
MIL
3.66ERA
3.52FIP
9.38K/9
3.94BB/9
1.32WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-39.6% EV
-161
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
-12.0% EV
-105
F5 OVER 4.5
+10.8% EV
-118
F5_ML HOME
-5.9% EV
-149
ML HOME
-5.7% EV
-154
F5_ML AWAY
-3.9% EV
+120
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CLE F5
2.6 runs
38.5% win
MIL F5
3.1 runs
49.1% win
F5 Total
5.7
NRFI
47.7%
YRFI
52.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.22
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.7
Over 0.5 HR
93%
Over 1.5 HR
74%
No HR
7%
Brayan Rocchio CLE30.0%
ISO: 0.174 | Barrel: 6.2% | vs Robert Gasser | Platoon: 1.12x
Jake Bauers MIL30.0%
ISO: 0.268 | Barrel: 14.0% | vs Slade Cecconi | Platoon: 1.12x
Brice Turang MIL30.0%
ISO: 0.240 | Barrel: 9.8% | vs Slade Cecconi | Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Slade Cecconi
0.0 K projected
CLE | K/9: 0.0
Robert Gasser
0.0 K projected
MIL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CLE5 injured
Jose Ramirez 3B10-DAY-IL
Chase DeLauter RFDAY-TO-DAY
Angel Martinez LF10-DAY-IL
Erik Sabrowski RP15-DAY-IL
Carlos Hernandez RPDAY-TO-DAY
MIL8 injured
Quinn Priester SP60-DAY-IL
Coleman Crow SP15-DAY-IL
DL Hall RP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Lockridge LF10-DAY-IL
Brandon Woodruff SP15-DAY-IL
Jared Koenig RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEANYELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=198)
OVER 8.0 has +2.6% edge (54.9% model vs 52.3% market) — minimal edge but positive. Model projects 9.84 total runs (1.84 swing favoring over). Robert Gasser (6.89 ERA, poor) vs Slade Cecconi (5.22 ERA, below-average) both struggle with control. F5 shows +10.8% edge (59.9% prob) — early-inning scoring expected.
Key Factors
- Both pitchers below-average: Gasser 6.89 ERA (0.504 grade, stuff 0.427) vs Cecconi 5.22 ERA (0.44 grade, stuff 0.267) — Gasser slightly worse
- F5 edge +10.8% (59.9% prob on OVER 5.5 in first innings) — early scoring signal is STRONG. Market ignoring early-inning advantage
- Wind (16.6 mph in, -16.2 tail) is SUPPRESSIVE but not insurmountable. Reduces expected runs by ~0.5-1.0 from model baseline
- Cool 68.6F (68°) also slightly suppressive for HR distance but marginal
- MIL has home advantage (5.29 runs projected vs CLE 4.55) — expected to score more. Market may be overweighting weather suppression
Risk Factors
- YELLOW zone (50.1% WR) — no profitable niche. Edge +2.6% is below 5% threshold historically (71.4% WR in that band vs 37.5% in 10-15% band)
- Wind is real — 16.6 mph blowing in can suppress 0.5-1.0 runs reliably. Model may underweight weather
- Jose Ramirez (10-day IL, hand surgery) out for CLE — removes cleanup hitter, slightly reducing their expected output
PITCHER MISMATCHTOTALS VALUEWEATHER IMPACTF5 EDGE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIL 56.8%
+0.3 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+0.3 pts
Total
8.0
+2.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →