Who is predicted to win CLE vs MIL on June 17, 2026?

Based on 10,000 Pitch Sim v5.3 Monte Carlo simulations, MIL is favored with a 59.1% win probability. The simulation's mean projected score is MIL 6.2 - CLE 4.7.

How did CLE vs MIL on June 17, 2026 end?

Final score: MIL 9 - CLE 4. This page now shows our pre-game projection alongside the actual outcome for transparency — every Olympus Bets projection is preserved with its result.

How does Olympus Bets generate sports predictions?

Every projection is produced by a league-specific Monte Carlo simulation engine (10,000+ iterations per game), Platt-scaled and isotonic-calibrated against historical outcomes, then sized with the Kelly Criterion plus a 15% Bayesian probability shrinkage. The full methodology is documented at https://app.olympus-bets.com/methodology.

CLE vs MIL Prediction & Picks — June 17, 2026

CLE vs MIL prediction for June 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIL 6.2 - CLE 4.7. MIL is favored with a 59.1% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 10.9 total runs.

MIL

6.2

Projected Score

VS O/U 7.5

CLE

4.7

Projected Score

Win Probability

59.1%

40.9%

MILCLE

-1.5

Run Line (MIL)

7.5

Total Line

10,000

Simulations

☑ Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.7% (2,410 games)

Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile

CLE

357

MIL

468

Projected

MIL 6.2 — CLE 4.7

Actual

MIL 9 — CLE 4

Starting Pitcher Matchup

Gavin Williams R

CLE

ST25%87 mph42% whiff

FF24%97 mph25% whiff

CU22%83 mph27% whiff

Brandon Sproat R

MIL

SI27%96 mph15% whiff

FC25%93 mph20% whiff

FF18%97 mph18% whiff

Weather Impact

American Family Field

60°F13 mph windRoof: retractable

HR: 1.055 Total: 1.029

thin air

Bullpen Comparison

CLE

3.52ERA

3.55FIP

10.51K/9

3.50BB/9

1.23WHIP

MIL

3.66ERA

3.52FIP

9.38K/9

3.94BB/9

1.32WHIP

Betting Edges

RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5

-47.7% EV

-213

TOTAL UNDER 7.5

-35.7% EV

-105

TOTAL OVER 7.5

+25.4% EV

-115

RUN_LINE HOME -1.5

+24.9% EV

+176

F5 OVER 4.5

+24.8% EV

+108

F5_ML AWAY

-22.4% EV

-114

First 5 Innings & NRFI

CLE F5

2.7 runs

33.6% win

MIL F5

3.7 runs

54.2% win

F5 Total

6.4

NRFI

47.3%

YRFI

52.7%

Avg 1st Inn Runs

1.24

HR Spotlight

Avg HRs

2.7

Over 0.5 HR

93%

Over 1.5 HR

74%

No HR

Jake Bauers MIL30.0%

ISO: 0.268 | Barrel: 14.0% | vs Gavin Williams | Platoon: 1.12x

Jackson Chourio MIL30.0%

ISO: 0.241 | Barrel: 14.4% | vs Gavin Williams

Brice Turang MIL30.0%

ISO: 0.240 | Barrel: 9.8% | vs Gavin Williams | Platoon: 1.12x

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Gavin Williams

0.0 K projected

CLE | K/9: 0.0

Brandon Sproat

0.0 K projected

MIL | K/9: 0.0

Injury Report

CLE6 injured

Chase DeLauter RF10-DAY-IL

Tanner Burns SPDAY-TO-DAY

Jose Ramirez 3B10-DAY-IL

Angel Martinez LF10-DAY-IL

Erik Sabrowski RP15-DAY-IL

Carlos Hernandez RPDAY-TO-DAY

MIL8 injured

Brandon Woodruff SP15-DAY-IL

Quinn Priester SP60-DAY-IL

Coleman Crow SP15-DAY-IL

DL Hall RP15-DAY-IL

Brandon Lockridge LF10-DAY-IL

Jared Koenig RP15-DAY-IL

+2 more

AI Intelligence Analysis

LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE53.2% WR (n=100)

MIL OVER 7.5 at 25.4% edge (model 67.0%, market 33.0%) is HIGH-EDGE territory, but pitcher mismatch story is real. Gavin Williams (B grade, 27.7% K rate, 10.3 K/9) is ace-quality; Brandon Sproat (B- grade, 22.5% K rate, 8.6 K/9) is mid-tier. Weather cold (60.1°F) suppresses runs, but MIL's strong pitching + CLE weak offense (missing Chase DeLauter) make this a lean. Cap at 1.0 units due to HIGH-EDGE TRAP.

Key Factors

Pitcher mismatch significant: Gavin Williams (B grade, 27.7% K rate, 10.3 K/9, elite stuff 0.594) vs Brandon Sproat (B- grade, 22.5% K rate, 8.6 K/9). 1.7 K/9 gap + grade difference = ~1.5 pt swing to MIL advantage
CLE lineup devastated: Chase DeLauter (10-day IL ribs — new news 2026-06-17), Jose Ramirez (10-day IL hand), Angel Martinez (10-day IL foot) all out. This is worse than model assumes (model data likely pre-DeLauter IL)
Model 10.86 total is OVER 7.5 by 3.36 runs; substantial edge signal
Weather counteracting: 60.1°F (cold) + retractable roof status unclear (if closed, wind neutral; if open, slight suppression). Cold typically suppresses ~0.5-1.0 runs
Zone: OVER 53.2% WR (n=100, YELLOW); matches expected profitability approximately

Risk Factors

HIGH-EDGE TRAP (25.4%): 25%+ edge bucket shows only 53.2% WR in zone data — expected 60%+ but underperforming significantly
Cold weather (60.1°F) and retractable roof closed (if so) could suppress runs to 9-9.5, bringing actual total below 7.5 under
MIL bullpen fatigue unknown; recent usage data not provided

HIGH EDGE WARNINGPITCHER MISMATCHWEATHER IMPACTTOTALS VALUE

Edge Analysis

Moneyline

MIL 59.1%

+24.9 pts

Run Line