CLE vs NYY prediction for June 2, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYY 6.6 - CLE 5.5. NYY is favored with a 61.1% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 12.1 total runs.
NYY
6.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
CLE
5.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYYCLE
-1.5
Run Line (NYY)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.4% (2,497 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CLE
467
NYY
579
Projected
NYY 6.6 — CLE 5.5
Actual
NYY 4 — CLE 9
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Joey Cantillo L
CLE
FF42%92 mph13% whiff
CH30%80 mph39% whiff
CU18%79 mph30% whiff
Cam Schlittler R
NYY
FF44%98 mph32% whiff
FC27%94 mph18% whiff
SI18%97 mph15% whiff
Weather Impact
Yankee Stadium
76°F7 mph wind
HR: 1.029 Total: 1.015
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
CLE
3.65ERA
3.84FIP
10.53K/9
3.93BB/9
1.27WHIP
NYY
3.44ERA
3.81FIP
8.70K/9
3.57BB/9
1.29WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-48.5% EV
-123
TOTAL OVER 7.5
+44.5% EV
+102
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-35.6% EV
-114
F5 OVER 3.5
+23.5% EV
-141
NRFI YRFI
+16.1% EV
+122
F5_ML HOME
-10.4% EV
-233
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CLE F5
2.9 runs
34.5% win
NYY F5
3.9 runs
54.2% win
F5 Total
6.8
NRFI
42.1%
YRFI
57.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.33
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.9
Over 0.5 HR
94%
Over 1.5 HR
78%
No HR
6%
Paul Goldschmidt NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.418 | Barrel: 14.1% | vs Joey Cantillo | Park: 1.10x Platoon: 1.12x
Ben Rice NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.302 | Barrel: 19.0% | vs Joey Cantillo | Park: 1.10x
Cody Bellinger NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.279 | Barrel: 11.0% | vs Joey Cantillo | Park: 1.10x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Joey Cantillo
0.0 K projected
CLE | K/9: 0.0
Cam Schlittler
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CLE3 injured
Gabriel Arias SS60-DAY-IL
Erik Sabrowski RP15-DAY-IL
Carlos Hernandez RPDAY-TO-DAY
NYY7 injured
Jasson Dominguez LF10-DAY-IL
Aaron Judge RFDAY-TO-DAY
Angel Chivilli RP15-DAY-IL
Giancarlo Stanton DH10-DAY-IL
Max Fried SP15-DAY-IL
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1RED ZONE50.1% WR (n=311)
Model projects 71.6% OVER probability on 7.5 total with 44.5% edge — an extreme overestimate contradicted by RED zone totals history (50.1% WR) and Aaron Judge OUT removal of 2-3 win probability swing from NYY lineup.
Key Factors
- Judge OUT: Estimated 2-3pt win probability swing, removes 1-2 runs from projection
- Schlittler K-rate edge: 10.1 vs Cantillo 8.1 K/9 (24% strikeout advantage favors UNDER)
- RED zone totals: 50.1% WR contradicts 44.5% edge
- Model projects 12.1 total, market 7.5 = 4.6 run miss (extreme overestimate)
Risk Factors
- Judge absence severely underestimates NYY lineup power, yet model still projects massive overs
- Pitcher quality strongly favors low-scoring game (both B-/C+ grade, strong K profiles)
- Yankee Stadium factor (1.1x park, +10% HR) would inflate scoring but strikeout pitchers suppress
RED ZONEHIGH EDGE WARNINGTBD PITCHERINJURY IMPACTPITCHER MISMATCH
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYY 61.1%
-7.1 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-7.1 pts
Total
7.5
+44.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →