CLE vs NYY prediction for June 4, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYY 5.5 - CLE 5.3. NYY is favored with a 53.7% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 10.8 total runs.
NYY
5.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
CLE
5.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYYCLE
-1.5
Run Line (NYY)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.6% (1,970 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CLE
357
NYY
467
Projected
NYY 5.5 — CLE 5.3
Actual
NYY 2 — CLE 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Slade Cecconi R
CLE
FF33%93 mph17% whiff
FC25%88 mph19% whiff
SI18%93 mph9% whiff
Carlos Rodón L
NYY
FF45%94 mph18% whiff
SL27%86 mph26% whiff
SI16%93 mph15% whiff
Weather Impact
Yankee Stadium
89°F2 mph wind
HR: 1.027 Total: 1.013
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
CLE
3.62ERA
3.50FIP
10.76K/9
3.40BB/9
1.23WHIP
NYY
3.66ERA
3.82FIP
8.65K/9
3.51BB/9
1.31WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-31.8% EV
-143
TOTAL UNDER 9.0
-28.3% EV
-118
F5_ML HOME
-15.2% EV
-175
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-12.5% EV
+118
ML HOME
-11.3% EV
-164
F5_ML AWAY
+10.4% EV
+140
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CLE F5
3.0 runs
42.1% win
NYY F5
3.1 runs
45.0% win
F5 Total
6.0
NRFI
51.6%
YRFI
48.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.10
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.6
Over 0.5 HR
92%
Over 1.5 HR
72%
No HR
8%
Ben Rice NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.359 | Barrel: 19.7% | vs Slade Cecconi | Park: 1.10x Platoon: 1.12x
Paul Goldschmidt NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.133 | Barrel: 14.8% | vs Slade Cecconi | Park: 1.10x
Ryan McMahon NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.169 | Barrel: 7.1% | vs Slade Cecconi | Park: 1.10x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Slade Cecconi
0.0 K projected
CLE | K/9: 0.0
Carlos Rodón
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CLE3 injured
Gabriel Arias SS60-DAY-IL
Erik Sabrowski RP15-DAY-IL
Carlos Hernandez RPDAY-TO-DAY
NYY7 injured
Jasson Dominguez LF10-DAY-IL
Giancarlo Stanton DH10-DAY-IL
Aaron Judge RFDAY-TO-DAY
Angel Chivilli RP15-DAY-IL
Max Fried SP15-DAY-IL
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE62.5% WR (n=8)
Rodón's 3.59 ERA + elite 24.4% K rate gives CLE clear pitcher advantage (2.08 ERA gap vs Cecconi 5.67); model's modest 44.9% away edge is conservative and justified, with limited downside risk. Home field offsetting pitcher advantage keeps game close; +6.9% edge is reasonable for road underdog with ace-level SP advantage.
Key Factors
- Pitcher advantage: Rodón 3.59 ERA vs Cecconi 5.67 ERA (2.08 ERA gap, elite in Rodón's favor); Rodón 24.4% K rate is elite, Cecconi 18.1% K is solid
- Modest edge profile: +6.9% is reasonable (not overconfident) for away team with pitcher advantage offsetting home field
- Zone strength: 0-5% edge bucket shows 62.5% WR (n=8), suggesting small edges on road teams with quality SPs do work
- Home field consideration: NYY -163 vs market shows home field heavily valued; this keeps game close despite SP gap
- Weather neutral: 88.9F, minimal wind (-1.0 drift), thin air helps runs slightly
Risk Factors
- Judge status uncertain: Aaron Judge DAY-TO-DAY (ribs) — if he sits, NYY lineup weakens ~1-2%
- Small sample zone data (n=8) for 0-5% edge bucket — confidence in zone WR reduced
- Red zone away ML combo (41.6% WR) still a headwind, though this game's edge is modest enough to overcome
PITCHER MISMATCHSHARP SUPPORT
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYY 53.7%
-12.5 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-12.5 pts
Total
9.0
+6.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →