CLE vs PHI prediction for May 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects PHI 4.8 - CLE 4.1. PHI is favored with a 56.6% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 6.5. Model projects 8.9 total runs.
PHI
4.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 6.5
CLE
4.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
PHICLE
-1.5
Run Line (PHI)
6.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.7% (2,236 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CLE
246
PHI
357
Projected
PHI 4.8 — CLE 4.1
Actual
PHI 0 — CLE 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Gavin Williams R
CLE
FF29%96 mph26% whiff
ST26%87 mph43% whiff
CU20%82 mph27% whiff
Cristopher Sánchez L
PHI
SI44%95 mph11% whiff
CH37%86 mph44% whiff
SL18%86 mph33% whiff
Weather Impact
Citizens Bank Park
59°F9 mph wind
HR: 1.041 Total: 1.025
9mph out
Bullpen Comparison
CLE
3.79ERA
3.87FIP
10.73K/9
3.88BB/9
1.28WHIP
PHI
4.55ERA
3.29FIP
10.26K/9
3.37BB/9
1.38WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-40.5% EV
-152
TOTAL UNDER 6.5
-30.5% EV
-104
TOTAL OVER 6.5
+19.4% EV
-118
F5 OVER 3.5
+12.5% EV
-106
ML HOME
-10.0% EV
-179
F5_ML HOME
-6.1% EV
-196
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CLE F5
2.0 runs
32.4% win
PHI F5
2.8 runs
52.2% win
F5 Total
4.9
NRFI
52.3%
YRFI
47.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.99
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.4
Over 0.5 HR
90%
Over 1.5 HR
69%
No HR
10%
Kyle Schwarber PHI30.0%
ISO: 0.415 | Barrel: 20.0% | vs Gavin Williams | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Bryce Harper PHI30.0%
ISO: 0.312 | Barrel: 15.0% | vs Gavin Williams | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Brandon Marsh PHI13.9%
ISO: 0.162 | Barrel: 7.0% | vs Gavin Williams | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Gavin Williams
0.0 K projected
CLE | K/9: 0.0
Cristopher Sánchez
0.0 K projected
PHI | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CLE2 injured
Gabriel Arias SS10-DAY-IL
Carlos Hernandez RPDAY-TO-DAY
PHI8 injured
Kyle Backhus RP15-DAY-IL
Zach Pop RP15-DAY-IL
Keaton Anthony 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Johan Rojas CFSUSPENSION
Rene Pinto CDAY-TO-DAY
Daniel Robert RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE54.9% WR (n=164)
PHI home elite starter (Cristopher Sanchez 0.671 grade, 29.6% K-rate, dominant SI) dominates Gavin Williams (0.626 grade, 28.3% K-rate) — market disrespecting PHI -178 as home heavy favorite; Kyle Schwarber returning from IL adds lineup depth. 19.4% OVER edge is RED zone but ML value exists.
Key Factors
- SP mismatch FAVORS PHI: Cristopher Sanchez (B+ grade, 0.671 overall, 29.6% K-rate, 4.9% BB-rate) vs Gavin Williams (B grade, 0.626, 28.3% K-rate, 8.2% BB-rate) — Sanchez elite command + high K is ace-level, Williams solid but below-ace
- Kyle Schwarber CONFIRMED ACTIVATED from 3-game absence (GI illness) — batting 2nd, DH; adds slug (30% HR prob per model) to lineup
- PHI home field + Citizens Bank (1.02 park factor) + cold weather (59.2F, 9mph out) = pitcher-friendly but Sanchez dominates anyway
- Model 56.6% home win prob; market only 64.0% implied — market pricing this correctly or better than model suggests. Market respected -178 odds
- F5 OVER edge 12.5% is positive (58.0% prob) but under f5_total restrictions; avoid F5 plays
Risk Factors
- PHI at -178 is maximum favorite threshold per calibration (max_fav_odds: -130 to -180 range); edge caps at that level
- AWAY ML shows 5.8% edge on modest 42.3% prob — Cleveland as 150 dog is not attractive per calibration (away ML RED zone: 45.1% WR n=164)
- Model disagrees with market on home ML value; could signal model underconfidence on phenom SP (Sanchez)
PITCHER MISMATCHWEATHER IMPACTPARK FACTOR
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
PHI 56.6%
-5.1 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-5.1 pts
Total
6.5
+19.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →