CLE vs PHI prediction for May 23, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects PHI 4.3 - CLE 4.7. PHI is favored with a 51.1% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.0. Model projects 8.9 total runs.
PHI
4.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.0
CLE
4.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
PHICLE
-1.5
Run Line (PHI)
7.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.9% (2,258 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CLE
357
PHI
246
Projected
PHI 4.3 — CLE 4.7
Actual
PHI 3 — CLE 0
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Slade Cecconi R
CLE
FF35%93 mph17% whiff
FC25%88 mph18% whiff
SI15%93 mph10% whiff
Zack Wheeler R
PHI
FF36%95 mph26% whiff
SI19%94 mph2% whiff
FS13%87 mph39% whiff
Weather Impact
Citizens Bank Park
53°F10 mph wind
HR: 1.042 Total: 1.027
10mph out
Bullpen Comparison
CLE
3.76ERA
3.86FIP
10.72K/9
3.86BB/9
1.27WHIP
PHI
4.58ERA
3.36FIP
10.25K/9
3.35BB/9
1.39WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL UNDER 7.0
-30.2% EV
-104
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-27.4% EV
-137
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-23.6% EV
+114
ML AWAY
+21.0% EV
+160
ML HOME
-18.2% EV
-189
F5_ML HOME
-16.9% EV
-222
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CLE F5
2.3 runs
38.7% win
PHI F5
2.5 runs
46.1% win
F5 Total
4.9
NRFI
51.6%
YRFI
48.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.04
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.9
Over 0.5 HR
85%
Over 1.5 HR
57%
No HR
15%
Kyle Schwarber PHI30.0%
ISO: 0.400 | Barrel: 20.0% | vs Slade Cecconi | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Bryce Harper PHI30.0%
ISO: 0.310 | Barrel: 15.0% | vs Slade Cecconi | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Brandon Marsh PHI16.6%
ISO: 0.158 | Barrel: 6.9% | vs Slade Cecconi | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Slade Cecconi
0.0 K projected
CLE | K/9: 0.0
Zack Wheeler
0.0 K projected
PHI | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CLE2 injured
Gabriel Arias SS10-DAY-IL
Carlos Hernandez RPDAY-TO-DAY
PHI8 injured
Kyle Backhus RP15-DAY-IL
Zach Pop RP15-DAY-IL
Keaton Anthony 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Johan Rojas CFSUSPENSION
Rene Pinto CDAY-TO-DAY
Daniel Robert RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +2RED ZONE45.2% WR (n=165)
Away underdog CLE shows 21.0% ML edge (46.5% win prob) with home at -188 odds (65.3% implied). Model reveals massive mispricing: market MASSIVELY overweighting Zack Wheeler (B- pitcher, 8.7 K/9, good but not elite). Away pitcher Slade Cecconi (C+, 7.3 K/9) is not as bad as market prices. PHI has been pricing Wheeler as near-ace when he's merely above-average. This is classic sharp money spot.
Key Factors
- Pitcher quality PARITY, not PHI advantage: Wheeler (B-, 8.7 K/9, 0.471 overall grade) vs Cecconi (C+, 7.3 K/9, 0.402 grade). Gap is 0.069 grade points, NOT massive.
- Market overweighting Wheeler brand: Phillies ace perception inflates odds beyond actual quality
- Home odds -188 implies 65.3% win prob; pitcher gap doesn't support >60% favorite on road
- Weather slightly favorable to away: 53F + 10mph wind out aids fly balls, but balanced for both lineups
Risk Factors
- Away ML zone is RED (45.2% WR historical) — away dogs structurally lose. However, THIS game has parity pitching.
- 21.0% edge is VERY HIGH — model overconfidence risk: high edge + underdog = model may be overestimating CLE
- Phillies lineup (Schwarber, Harper, Marsh) is stronger than Guardians — offense could overcome pitching parity
HIGH EDGE WARNINGMARKET OVERESTIMATE FAVORITEAWAY UNDERDOG VALUEPITCHER PARITYBRAND NAME TRAP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
PHI 51.1%
-23.6 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-23.6 pts
Total
7.0
+4.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →