CLE vs PHI prediction for May 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects PHI 3.7 - CLE 5.2. CLE is favored with a 62.4% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 8.9 total runs.
PHI
3.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
CLE
5.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
PHICLE
+1.5
Run Line (PHI)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.6% (2,610 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CLE
357
PHI
246
Projected
PHI 3.7 — CLE 5.2
Actual
PHI 1 — CLE 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Parker Messick L
CLE
FF30%94 mph18% whiff
CH25%85 mph43% whiff
SI14%92 mph6% whiff
Andrew Painter R
PHI
FF37%96 mph6% whiff
SL19%88 mph36% whiff
SI12%95 mph8% whiff
Weather Impact
Citizens Bank Park
60°F5 mph wind
HR: 1.017 Total: 1.010
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
CLE
3.70ERA
3.89FIP
10.74K/9
4.05BB/9
1.28WHIP
PHI
4.50ERA
3.31FIP
10.28K/9
3.29BB/9
1.37WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-49.3% EV
-185
F5_ML HOME
-24.5% EV
-112
ML HOME
-21.5% EV
-102
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-17.0% EV
-120
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
+15.1% EV
+152
F5_ML AWAY
+13.5% EV
-112
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CLE F5
2.8 runs
53.4% win
PHI F5
1.9 runs
30.9% win
F5 Total
4.7
NRFI
55.9%
YRFI
44.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.90
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.8
Over 0.5 HR
84%
Over 1.5 HR
55%
No HR
16%
Chase DeLauter CLE30.0%
ISO: 0.208 | Barrel: 9.6% | vs Andrew Painter | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Kyle Schwarber PHI30.0%
ISO: 0.358 | Barrel: 20.0% | vs Parker Messick | Park: 1.02x
David Fry CLE24.9%
ISO: 0.297 | Barrel: 7.9% | vs Andrew Painter | Park: 1.02x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Parker Messick
0.0 K projected
CLE | K/9: 0.0
Andrew Painter
0.0 K projected
PHI | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CLE2 injured
Gabriel Arias SS10-DAY-IL
Carlos Hernandez RPDAY-TO-DAY
PHI8 injured
Kyle Backhus RP15-DAY-IL
Zach Pop RP15-DAY-IL
Keaton Anthony 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Johan Rojas CFSUSPENSION
Rene Pinto CDAY-TO-DAY
Daniel Robert RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
CLE away shows 12.3% edge with Parker Messick (2.65 ERA, 28.3% K-rate, B- stuff) outpitching Andrew Painter (6.23 ERA, 19% K-rate, C+ stuff) — classic ace vs back-end mismatch that market hasn't fully priced.
Key Factors
- Parker Messick (CLE SP) Bayesian ERA: 2.65 (elite), 28.3% K-rate (top tier), B- stuff grade — this is an ACE
- Andrew Painter (PHI SP) Bayesian ERA: 6.23 (bottom-tier), 19% K-rate, C+ stuff — massive mismatch
- Market has PHI -102 (50.5%) despite 2.65 vs 6.23 ERA delta — market undervaluing away ace
- Weather neutral (60.5F, 4.7 mph wind neutral). Park neutral (1.02 factor). No environmental edge.
- CLE lineup has quality bats (Chase DeLauter HR candidate 30%, David Fry 24.9%). PHI has Kyle Schwarber (30% HR prob).
Risk Factors
- Away ML is historically weak — edge may be partially priced despite market's apparent miss on pitcher quality
- CLE is on 2-game losing streak (recent form), PHI on neutral. Could be narrative factor market is pricing.
- 12.3% edge is solid but within range where away ML underperforms (need 13%+ to overcome zone drag)
PITCHER MISMATCHFAVORABLE MARKET
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CLE 62.4%
-49.3 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-49.3 pts
Total
7.5
+8.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →