CLE vs PHI prediction for May 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects PHI 3.7 - CLE 5.2. CLE is favored with a 62.4% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 8.9 total runs.
PHI
3.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
CLE
5.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
PHICLE
+1.5
Run Line (PHI)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.1% (2,282 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CLE
357
PHI
246
Projected
PHI 3.7 — CLE 5.2
Actual
PHI 1 — CLE 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Parker Messick L
CLE
FF30%94 mph18% whiff
CH25%85 mph43% whiff
SI14%92 mph6% whiff
Andrew Painter R
PHI
FF37%96 mph6% whiff
SL19%88 mph36% whiff
SI12%95 mph8% whiff
Weather Impact
Citizens Bank Park
60°F5 mph wind
HR: 1.017 Total: 1.010
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
CLE
3.70ERA
3.89FIP
10.74K/9
4.05BB/9
1.28WHIP
PHI
4.50ERA
3.31FIP
10.28K/9
3.29BB/9
1.37WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-49.3% EV
-185
F5_ML HOME
-24.5% EV
-112
ML HOME
-21.5% EV
-102
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-17.0% EV
-120
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
+15.1% EV
+152
F5_ML AWAY
+13.5% EV
-112
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CLE F5
2.8 runs
53.4% win
PHI F5
1.9 runs
30.9% win
F5 Total
4.7
NRFI
55.9%
YRFI
44.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.90
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.8
Over 0.5 HR
84%
Over 1.5 HR
55%
No HR
16%
Chase DeLauter CLE30.0%
ISO: 0.208 | Barrel: 9.6% | vs Andrew Painter | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Kyle Schwarber PHI30.0%
ISO: 0.358 | Barrel: 20.0% | vs Parker Messick | Park: 1.02x
David Fry CLE24.9%
ISO: 0.297 | Barrel: 7.9% | vs Andrew Painter | Park: 1.02x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Parker Messick
0.0 K projected
CLE | K/9: 0.0
Andrew Painter
0.0 K projected
PHI | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CLE2 injured
Gabriel Arias SS10-DAY-IL
Carlos Hernandez RPDAY-TO-DAY
PHI8 injured
Kyle Backhus RP15-DAY-IL
Zach Pop RP15-DAY-IL
Keaton Anthony 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Johan Rojas CFSUSPENSION
Rene Pinto CDAY-TO-DAY
Daniel Robert RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1RED ZONE44.5% WR (n=163)
CLE away shows 12.3% edge with Parker Messick (2.65 ERA, 28.3% K-rate, B- stuff) outpitching Andrew Painter (6.23 ERA, 19% K-rate, C+ stuff) — classic ace vs back-end mismatch that market hasn't fully priced.
Key Factors
- Parker Messick (CLE SP) Bayesian ERA: 2.65 (elite), 28.3% K-rate (top tier), B- stuff grade — this is an ACE
- Andrew Painter (PHI SP) Bayesian ERA: 6.23 (bottom-tier), 19% K-rate, C+ stuff — massive mismatch
- Market has PHI -102 (50.5%) despite 2.65 vs 6.23 ERA delta — market undervaluing away ace
- Weather neutral (60.5F, 4.7 mph wind neutral). Park neutral (1.02 factor). No environmental edge.
- CLE lineup has quality bats (Chase DeLauter HR candidate 30%, David Fry 24.9%). PHI has Kyle Schwarber (30% HR prob).
Risk Factors
- Away ML is RED zone (44.5% WR) — edge may be partially priced despite market's apparent miss on pitcher quality
- CLE is on 2-game losing streak (recent form), PHI on neutral. Could be narrative factor market is pricing.
- 12.3% edge is solid but within range where away ML underperforms (need 13%+ to overcome zone drag)
PITCHER MISMATCHFAVORABLE MARKET
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CLE 62.4%
-49.3 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-49.3 pts
Total
7.5
+8.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →