FINAL: SEA 5 — CLE 1. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected SEA 3.0 - CLE 2.8 (SEA at 54.1% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.0. Model projects 5.8 total runs.
SEA
3.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.0
CLE
2.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
SEACLE
-1.5
Run Line (SEA)
7.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CLE
135
SEA
135
Projected
SEA 3.0 — CLE 2.8
Actual
SEA 5 — CLE 1
Pick Results
CLE @ SEA NRFInrfiLOSS-1.00u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Gavin Williams R
CLE
FF38%97 mph20% whiff
CU22%82 mph33% whiff
ST20%86 mph44% whiff
George Kirby R
SEA
SL29%87 mph31% whiff
SI28%96 mph10% whiff
FF28%96 mph26% whiff
Weather Impact
T-Mobile Park
49°F7 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 0.998 Total: 1.000
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
CLE
4.26ERA
4.20FIP
9.37K/9
3.65BB/9
1.26WHIP
SEA
4.36ERA
3.78FIP
9.14K/9
3.24BB/9
1.29WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-40.6% EV
-152
TOTAL OVER 7.0
-37.3% EV
-105
TOTAL UNDER 7.0
+29.1% EV
-115
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-19.4% EV
+126
F5 UNDER 3.5
+16.9% EV
-110
ML HOME
-11.7% EV
-179
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CLE F5
1.4 runs
33.9% win
SEA F5
1.7 runs
42.8% win
F5 Total
3.0
NRFI
66.2%
YRFI
33.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.60
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
0.0
Over 0.5 HR
0%
Over 1.5 HR
0%
No HR
0%
Kyle Manzardo CLE13.8%
ISO: 0.219 | Barrel: 11.1% | vs George Kirby | Park: 0.89x Platoon: 1.12x
Cal Raleigh SEA12.4%
ISO: 0.316 | Barrel: 14.9% | vs Gavin Williams | Park: 0.89x Platoon: 1.12x
Luke Raley SEA11.2%
ISO: 0.104 | Barrel: 10.4% | vs Gavin Williams | Park: 0.89x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Gavin Williams
0.0 K projected
CLE | K/9: 0.0
George Kirby
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CLE6 injured
Tanner Bibee SPDAY-TO-DAY
George Valera RF10-DAY-IL
Hunter Gaddis RP15-DAY-IL
Andrew Walters RP15-DAY-IL
Austin Hedges CDAY-TO-DAY
Carlos Hernandez RPOUT
SEA6 injured
Carlos Vargas RP15-DAY-IL
Miles Mastrobuoni 3B10-DAY-IL
J.P. Crawford SS10-DAY-IL
Bryce Miller SP15-DAY-IL
Brennen Davis CFDAY-TO-DAY
Logan Evans SP60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE49.9% WR (n=970)
T-Mobile Park at 49.2°F with George Kirby's elite command (0.699 command score, 5.4% BB rate) and Gavin Williams projecting only 5.78 total runs against a 7.0 market line creates genuine under value — though the 29.1% edge exceeds calibration caps and warrants caution.
Key Factors
- Model total 5.78 vs market 7.0 — gap of -1.22 runs; 69.0% under probability
- Temperature: 49.2°F at T-Mobile Park — cold weather suppresses run scoring by ~0.5-0.75 runs per the standard weather model
- George Kirby: B+ command (0.699), 5.4% BB rate (elite), SL/SI/FF mix — minimal free passes limit traffic on base; K rate 26.1%
- SEA bullpen: 4.36 ERA (average overall) but park suppresses runs; CLE bullpen 4.26 ERA — both pens are adequate; neither generates extra runs
- F5 under 3.5 edge 16.9% (model prob 61.2%) — in the first 5 innings, starters project just 3.05 combined; excellent F5 under angle with both quality starters going deep
Risk Factors
- Under edge 29.1% exceeds calibration cap by significant margin — HIGH_EDGE_WARNING; historical WR on extreme under edges is poor (38.5% per zone data)
- CLE away ML edge 11.1% — model projects CLE wins 44.5% vs market 40.0%, but at -178 HOU... wait, SEA is -178 home favorite here; CLE ML at +150 is in RED zone (away underdog)
- Gavin Williams BB rate is elevated at 11.3% (career pattern of control issues) — if he walks batters early, cold weather runs game could flip to over
WEATHER IMPACTTOTALS VALUEHIGH EDGE WARNING
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SEA 54.1%
-19.4 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-19.4 pts
Total
7.0
+29.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →