COL vs ARI prediction for May 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects ARI 6.5 - COL 5.1. ARI is favored with a 59.6% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 11.6 total runs.
ARI
6.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
COL
5.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
ARICOL
-1.5
Run Line (ARI)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.2% (2,236 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
COL
357
ARI
568
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Tomoyuki Sugano R
COL
FF23%92 mph13% whiff
FS21%87 mph29% whiff
SI16%92 mph4% whiff
Michael Soroka R
ARI
SV33%81 mph36% whiff
FF32%94 mph12% whiff
FC13%89 mph17% whiff
Weather Impact
Chase Field
94°F9 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.017 Total: 1.005
thin air, 9mph in
Bullpen Comparison
COL
4.66ERA
4.12FIP
8.60K/9
4.03BB/9
1.44WHIP
ARI
3.38ERA
3.61FIP
8.08K/9
2.63BB/9
1.02WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-40.6% EV
-122
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-33.6% EV
+100
TOTAL OVER 8.5
+21.6% EV
-122
F5 OVER 5.5
+20.3% EV
+114
ML HOME
-10.2% EV
-208
ML AWAY
+8.5% EV
+176
First 5 Innings & NRFI
COL F5
2.9 runs
32.3% win
ARI F5
4.1 runs
56.7% win
F5 Total
7.0
NRFI
44.3%
YRFI
55.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.34
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.4
Over 0.5 HR
97%
Over 1.5 HR
86%
No HR
3%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Tomoyuki Sugano
0.0 K projected
COL | K/9: 0.0
Michael Soroka
0.0 K projected
ARI | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
COL8 injured
Brenton Doyle CF10-DAY-IL
Chase Dollander SP15-DAY-IL
Victor Vodnik RP15-DAY-IL
Ryan Feltner SP15-DAY-IL
Jordan Beck LF10-DAY-IL
Jimmy Herget RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
ARI8 injured
Derek Law RPDAY-TO-DAY
Spencer Giesting SPDAY-TO-DAY
A.J. Puk RP60-DAY-IL
Corbin Burnes SP60-DAY-IL
James McCann C10-DAY-IL
Jordan Lawlar LF60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -2YELLOW ZONE49.9% WR (n=283)
ARI home favorite at -208 shows massive 21.6% OVER edge (66.8% prob total, 11.61 mean runs) but OVER market is DISABLED per calibration (43.2% WR, grade F). Model also shows -10.2% home ML edge despite 59.6% home win prob — internal contradiction. Coors Park effect (COL away park suppressor) and Sugano weak arm should favor ARI, but totals market disabled means cannot exploit.
Key Factors
- Pitcher advantage ARI: Michael Soroka (B grade, 0.546 score, 25.2% K-rate, 3.78 ERA) vs Tomoyuki Sugano (C+ grade, 0.325 score, 13.4% K-rate, 4.34 ERA, D-grade stuff) — Soroka clear advantage; weak arm facing weak arm but ARI slightly better
- OVER 8.5 edge 21.6% (66.8% prob) is EXTREMELY HIGH but OVER market is DISABLED (grade F, 43.2% WR) — model overconfident on high-edge totals
- Chase Field retractable roof (neutral) + extreme heat (94.2F) + thin air (2869 density altitude) = run-friendly park for home team
- Coors effect: COL away team benefits from Coors at home (park factor 1.15) but suffers away (park suppressor when playing in Arizona 1.06 factor). Model inflating totals due to residual Coors bias.
- Model 59.6% home win prob vs market 67.5% implied — market more confident in ARI than model on ML
Risk Factors
- 21.6% edge on OVER is in catastrophic zone (>20% = model overconfident); historical failure rate on high-edge totals is terrible (43.2% WR)
- OVER market is DISABLED — cannot bet this even if it looks attractive
- Extreme heat might not produce runs if both pitchers are competent; Soroka and Sugano both have middling ERAs despite park advantage
HIGH EDGE WARNINGTOTALS VALUEDATA INTEGRITYWEATHER IMPACTPARK FACTOR
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
ARI 59.6%
-1.5 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-1.5 pts
Total
8.5
+21.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →