Who is predicted to win COL vs CHC on June 16, 2026?

Based on 10,000 Pitch Sim v5.3 Monte Carlo simulations, CHC is favored with a 54.1% win probability. The simulation's mean projected score is CHC 6.2 - COL 5.8.

How did COL vs CHC on June 16, 2026 end?

Final score: CHC 2 - COL 5. This page now shows our pre-game projection alongside the actual outcome for transparency — every Olympus Bets projection is preserved with its result.

How does Olympus Bets generate sports predictions?

Every projection is produced by a league-specific Monte Carlo simulation engine (10,000+ iterations per game), Platt-scaled and isotonic-calibrated against historical outcomes, then sized with the Kelly Criterion plus a 15% Bayesian probability shrinkage. The full methodology is documented at https://app.olympus-bets.com/methodology.

COL vs CHC Prediction & Picks — June 16, 2026

COL vs CHC prediction for June 16, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CHC 6.2 - COL 5.8. CHC is favored with a 54.1% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 11.9 total runs.

CHC

6.2

Projected Score

VS O/U 9.5

COL

5.8

Projected Score

Win Probability

54.1%

45.9%

CHCCOL

-1.5

Run Line (CHC)

9.5

Total Line

10,000

Simulations

☑ Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.3% (2,386 games)

Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile

COL

468

CHC

468

Projected

CHC 6.2 — COL 5.8

Actual

CHC 2 — COL 5

Starting Pitcher Matchup

Ryan Feltner R

COL

FF26%95 mph8% whiff

SL25%89 mph22% whiff

CH16%86 mph48% whiff

Edward Cabrera R

CHC

CH32%93 mph28% whiff

SI20%96 mph4% whiff

CU18%85 mph32% whiff

Weather Impact

Wrigley Field

69°F14 mph wind

HR: 0.967 Total: 0.978

thin air, 13mph in

Bullpen Comparison

COL

5.45ERA

4.65FIP

8.19K/9

4.48BB/9

1.58WHIP

CHC

4.04ERA

5.13FIP

8.17K/9

4.04BB/9

1.34WHIP

Betting Edges

RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5

-28.3% EV

-122

TOTAL UNDER 9.5

-24.1% EV

-104

F5 OVER 5.5

+19.6% EV

-108

ML AWAY

+16.8% EV

+166

ML HOME

-15.3% EV

-196

F5_ML HOME

-14.1% EV

-182

First 5 Innings & NRFI

COL F5

3.4 runs

41.7% win

CHC F5

3.7 runs

47.5% win

F5 Total

7.1

NRFI

41.6%

YRFI

58.4%

Avg 1st Inn Runs

1.48

HR Spotlight

Avg HRs

3.6

Over 0.5 HR

97%

Over 1.5 HR

87%

No HR

Hunter Goodman COL30.0%

ISO: 0.297 | Barrel: 16.2% | vs Edward Cabrera | Park: 1.03x

Ian Happ CHC30.0%

ISO: 0.275 | Barrel: 14.4% | vs Ryan Feltner | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x

Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC30.0%

ISO: 0.251 | Barrel: 10.8% | vs Ryan Feltner | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Ryan Feltner

0.0 K projected

COL | K/9: 0.0

Edward Cabrera

0.0 K projected

CHC | K/9: 0.0

Injury Report

COL8 injured

Chase Dollander SP60-DAY-IL

Brenton Doyle CF10-DAY-IL

Jordan Beck LF10-DAY-IL

Mickey Moniak LF10-DAY-IL

Jimmy Herget RP15-DAY-IL

Tanner Gordon RP15-DAY-IL

+2 more

CHC8 injured

Daniel Palencia RP15-DAY-IL

Justin Steele SP60-DAY-IL

Matthew Boyd SP15-DAY-IL

Jaxon Wiggins SPDAY-TO-DAY

Jameson Taillon SP15-DAY-IL

Hunter Harvey RP60-DAY-IL

+2 more

AI Intelligence Analysis

STRONG BET +1YELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=198)

OVER 9.5 has +13.3% edge (61.3% model vs 48.0% market) — strongest total edge on slate. Model projects 11.94 runs (2.44 swing favoring over). Both pitchers are poor (Edward Cabrera 5.25 ERA, Ryan Feltner 5.62 ERA). Park factor 1.03 (Wrigley +3%), weather cool (68.6F) with 13.9 mph wind blowing IN (-12.8 tail) is SUPPRESSIVE but insufficient to overcome pitcher weakness. F5 shows massive +19.6% edge (62.0% prob OVER 5.5) — early-inning explosion likely.

Key Factors

BOTH pitchers are poor: Cabrera 5.25 ERA (0.406 grade, 0.36 stuff) and Feltner 5.62 ERA (0.434 grade, 0.26 stuff) — combined they're replacement-level
F5 advantage HUGE: +19.6% edge (62.0% prob OVER 5.5 in first 5 innings) — market is severely underestimating early run explosion
Park factor 1.03 (Wrigley) adds marginal inflation to run expectation; helps overs
Weather: 68.6F cold, 13.9 mph wind in (-12.8 tail-wind) SUPPRESSES but only by ~0.5-1.0 runs. Model baseline 11.94 accounts for this
CHC lineup projects 6.16 runs (home), COL 5.78 (away) — high totals expected

Risk Factors

HIGH-EDGE TRAP: +13.3% edge is in RED zone historically (high edges correlate to WORST WR). Calibration data shows edges >10% in totals have poor track record. CAP UNIT at 0.75-1.0, not 1.5
YELLOW zone totals only 50.1% WR (n=198) — no edge. Historical data doesn't support big total edges
Wind blowing in (-12.8 tail) is real suppression; could reduce runs 0.5-1.0 from model baseline

PITCHER MISMATCHTOTALS VALUEHIGH EDGE WARNINGF5 EDGEPARK FACTORWEATHER IMPACT

Edge Analysis

Moneyline

CHC 54.1%

-13.5 pts

Run Line