COL vs CIN prediction for April 29, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CIN 4.2 - COL 4.1. CIN is favored with a 52.6% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 8.3 total runs.
CIN
4.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
COL
4.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
CINCOL
-1.5
Run Line (CIN)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
COL
246
CIN
246
Projected
CIN 4.2 — COL 4.1
Actual
CIN 2 — COL 13
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Tomoyuki Sugano R
COL
FF28%92 mph14% whiff
FS23%87 mph33% whiff
FC14%89 mph24% whiff
Brandon Williamson L
CIN
FC26%89 mph15% whiff
CH24%85 mph34% whiff
FF19%93 mph9% whiff
Weather Impact
Great American Ball Park
66°F11 mph wind
HR: 0.982 Total: 0.987
8mph in
Bullpen Comparison
COL
3.88ERA
4.11FIP
9.28K/9
3.62BB/9
1.36WHIP
CIN
2.84ERA
4.45FIP
9.08K/9
5.92BB/9
1.38WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-35.4% EV
-154
TOTAL OVER 9.5
-26.6% EV
-102
F5 UNDER 5.5
+16.5% EV
-114
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-16.1% EV
+128
NRFI NRFI
+15.6% EV
+114
TOTAL UNDER 9.5
+15.2% EV
-120
First 5 Innings & NRFI
COL F5
2.1 runs
38.1% win
CIN F5
2.4 runs
45.1% win
F5 Total
4.6
NRFI
57.5%
YRFI
42.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.85
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.6
Over 0.5 HR
92%
Over 1.5 HR
72%
No HR
8%
Hunter Goodman COL30.0%
ISO: 0.318 | Barrel: 15.5% | vs Brandon Williamson | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Mickey Moniak COL30.0%
ISO: 0.198 | Barrel: 19.8% | vs Brandon Williamson | Park: 1.08x
Jordan Beck COL30.0%
ISO: 0.211 | Barrel: 4.7% | vs Brandon Williamson | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Tomoyuki Sugano
0.0 K projected
COL | K/9: 0.0
Brandon Williamson
0.0 K projected
CIN | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
COL8 injured
Willi Castro 2BDAY-TO-DAY
Ryan Feltner SP15-DAY-IL
Jeff Criswell RP60-DAY-IL
McCade Brown SP60-DAY-IL
RJ Petit RP60-DAY-IL
Pierson Ohl RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
CIN8 injured
Eugenio Suarez 3B10-DAY-IL
Graham Ashcraft RPBEREAVEMENT
Hunter Greene SP60-DAY-IL
Nick Lodolo SP15-DAY-IL
Caleb Ferguson RP15-DAY-IL
Connor Burns CDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CIN 52.6%
-16.1 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-16.1 pts
Total
9.5
+15.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →