FINAL: MIA 2 — COL 1. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected MIA 3.2 - COL 2.9 (MIA at 54.8% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 6.1 total runs.
MIA
3.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
COL
2.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
MIACOL
-1.5
Run Line (MIA)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
COL L5MIA L4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
COL
135
MIA
135
Projected
MIA 3.2 — COL 2.9
Actual
MIA 2 — COL 1
Pick Results
COL @ MIA NRFInrfiWIN+0.39u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Kyle Freeland L
COL
FF33%92 mph10% whiff
KC26%83 mph36% whiff
FC16%87 mph16% whiff
Sandy Alcantara R
MIA
SI26%97 mph10% whiff
CH23%90 mph26% whiff
FF17%98 mph15% whiff
Weather Impact
loanDepot park
76°F8 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.064 Total: 1.036
8mph out
Bullpen Comparison
COL
3.84ERA
4.11FIP
8.72K/9
3.63BB/9
1.29WHIP
MIA
3.89ERA
4.12FIP
8.31K/9
3.33BB/9
1.29WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-39.1% EV
-133
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-34.7% EV
-123
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
+31.5% EV
+102
F5 UNDER 4.5
+21.0% EV
-120
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-20.0% EV
+112
ML AWAY
+14.6% EV
+164
First 5 Innings & NRFI
COL F5
1.6 runs
34.2% win
MIA F5
1.9 runs
44.9% win
F5 Total
3.5
NRFI
63.7%
YRFI
36.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.65
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
0.0
Over 0.5 HR
0%
Over 1.5 HR
0%
No HR
0%
Christopher Morel MIA15.8%
ISO: 0.179 | Barrel: 7.5% | vs Kyle Freeland | Park: 0.93x Platoon: 1.12x
Hunter Goodman COL10.6%
ISO: 0.233 | Barrel: 12.1% | vs Sandy Alcantara | Park: 0.93x
Jake McCarthy COL8.2%
ISO: 0.089 | Barrel: 8.9% | vs Sandy Alcantara | Park: 0.93x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Kyle Freeland
0.0 K projected
COL | K/9: 0.0
Sandy Alcantara
0.0 K projected
MIA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
COL8 injured
Mickey Moniak RF10-DAY-IL
RJ Petit RP60-DAY-IL
Tyler Freeman RF10-DAY-IL
McCade Brown SP15-DAY-IL
Blaine Crim 1B10-DAY-IL
Pierson Ohl RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
MIA7 injured
Kyle Stowers LF10-DAY-IL
Esteury Ruiz LF10-DAY-IL
Maximo Acosta SS10-DAY-IL
Adam Mazur SP60-DAY-IL
Thomas White SPDAY-TO-DAY
Ronny Henriquez RP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE49.9% WR (n=970)
With Christopher Morel (MIA's top HR candidate) scratched with an oblique strain and Sandy Alcantara's sinker-heavy arsenal projecting just 6.12 total runs vs a 7.5 market total, the under is backed by both model (-1.38 run gap) and late-breaking injury news the market hasn't fully priced.
Key Factors
- Model total 6.12 vs market 7.5 — gap of -1.38 runs, 65.1% under probability
- Christopher Morel scratched (oblique) — MIA's top HR candidate (15.8% HR prob, .179 ISO) is out, meaningfully reducing MIA's offensive output
- Sandy Alcantara sinker-heavy (25.9% SI + 23.2% CH) — ground ball profile suppresses run scoring; 7.3 K/9 limits NRFI but controls damage
- Kyle Freeland command grade A- (0.839) — elite command suppresses walks and limits crooked innings; K rate 6.8% (low) but keeps ball in play
- NRFI probability 63.7% — both pitchers have above-average ground ball tendencies, and loanDepot park with 8.4 mph tailwind (total_mult 1.036) partially offsets but doesn't erase the run suppression
Risk Factors
- Away ML (COL) edge 14.6% — HIGH_EDGE_WARNING; COL is an away underdog in RED zone historically (38.1% WR) — avoid COL ML
- Under calibration requires 18% min edge (restricted grade F) — 31.5% edge here does exceed the threshold, but the under grade is poor historically
- loanDepot has retractable roof open with 8.4 mph tailwind (total_mult 1.036, HR mult 1.064) — slight over lean from venue, partially countering under thesis
TOTALS VALUEPARK FACTOR
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIA 54.8%
-20.0 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-20.0 pts
Total
7.5
+31.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →