COL vs OAK prediction for June 12, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects OAK 4.8 - COL 3.8. OAK is favored with a 58.8% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 14.0. Model projects 8.6 total runs.
OAK
4.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 14.0
COL
3.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
OAKCOL
-1.5
Run Line (OAK)
14.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.4% (2,305 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
COL
246
OAK
357
Projected
OAK 4.8 — COL 3.8
Actual
OAK 6 — COL 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
R TBD
COL
Gage Jump L
OAK
FF49%96 mph18% whiff
SL24%88 mph21% whiff
CH10%88 mph25% whiff
Weather Impact
Oakland Coliseum
64°F10 mph wind
HR: 1.010 Total: 1.004
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
COL
5.41ERA
4.46FIP
8.16K/9
4.17BB/9
1.53WHIP
OAK
4.55ERA
3.75FIP
9.94K/9
4.19BB/9
1.41WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 14.0
-68.8% EV
-102
TOTAL UNDER 14.0
+54.2% EV
-120
F5 UNDER 7.5
+44.3% EV
-106
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-37.5% EV
-105
NRFI NRFI
+21.8% EV
+164
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-13.4% EV
-115
First 5 Innings & NRFI
COL F5
2.0 runs
33.7% win
OAK F5
2.8 runs
51.4% win
F5 Total
4.7
NRFI
52.3%
YRFI
47.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.99
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.3
Over 0.5 HR
90%
Over 1.5 HR
67%
No HR
10%
Hunter Goodman COL30.0%
ISO: 0.232 | Barrel: 15.7% | vs Gage Jump | Park: 0.94x Platoon: 1.12x
Cole Carrigg COL29.7%
ISO: 0.200 | Barrel: 20.0% | vs Gage Jump | Park: 0.94x Platoon: 1.12x
Nick Kurtz OAK22.9%
ISO: 0.261 | Barrel: 14.1% | Park: 0.94x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
0.0 K projected
COL | K/9: 0.0
Gage Jump
0.0 K projected
OAK | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
COL8 injured
Jake McCarthy CFDAY-TO-DAY
Brenton Doyle CF10-DAY-IL
Jordan Beck LF10-DAY-IL
Mickey Moniak LF10-DAY-IL
Chase Dollander SP15-DAY-IL
Tyler Freeman RF7-DAY IL
+2 more
OAK6 injured
Brent Rooker DH10-DAY-IL
Aaron Civale SP15-DAY-IL
Luis Severino SP15-DAY-IL
Brooks Kriske RP60-DAY-IL
Denzel Clarke CF60-DAY-IL
Gunnar Hoglund SP60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1YELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=188)
MASSIVE UNDER edge on epic market distortion: Model 8.62 total vs market 14.0 (5.38-run gap = +54.2% edge, 84.3% model prob UNDER). Market is pricing 14.0 total as if Coors Field (it is OAK), but Coors is COL home, not here. This appears data error or market confusion. Gage Jump (2.65 ERA, B- 0.465) elite home pitcher dominates unknown OAK TBD starter. Cold Oakland weather (63.6F, neutral conditions). Model sees low-scoring game; market sees Coors home run fantasy. UNDER 14.0 is highest-conviction play on slate.
Key Factors
- UNDER edge MASSIVE: +54.2% (84.3% model UNDER vs ~30% market), model 8.62 vs market 14.0 (5.38-run gap, highest on slate)
- Gage Jump elite: 2.65 ERA, B- 0.465 strong arm, dominates TBD OAK starter — low-scoring setup
- Market confusion likely: 14.0 total suggests Coors Field (COL home park), but game in OAK (neutral 1.0x multiplier). Temperature cold (63.6F) further suppresses runs.
Risk Factors
- TBD OAK pitcher creates uncertainty; could be surprise arm that elevates scoring
- Market confidence in 14.0 despite error suggests sharp money loaded — trust potential over trust market if consensus is this one-sided
- Highest-edge play on slate always contains execution risk
DATA INTEGRITY CONCERNMARKET PARK CONFUSIONMASSIVE UNDER EDGEELITE HOME PITCHERTBD AWAY PITCHERNRFI STRONG
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
OAK 58.8%
-13.4 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-13.4 pts
Total
14.0
+54.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →