COL vs PHI prediction for May 10, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects PHI 3.7 - COL 3.6. PHI is favored with a 53.7% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 7.3 total runs.
PHI
3.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
COL
3.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
PHICOL
-1.5
Run Line (PHI)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
COL
246
PHI
246
Projected
PHI 3.7 — COL 3.6
Actual
PHI 6 — COL 0
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Tomoyuki Sugano R
COL
FF26%92 mph14% whiff
FS22%87 mph31% whiff
FC15%89 mph20% whiff
Cristopher Sánchez L
PHI
SI45%95 mph10% whiff
CH36%86 mph47% whiff
SL19%86 mph34% whiff
Weather Impact
Citizens Bank Park
80°F8 mph wind
HR: 0.986 Total: 0.990
8mph in
Bullpen Comparison
COL
4.97ERA
4.34FIP
9.19K/9
4.13BB/9
1.47WHIP
PHI
4.00ERA
3.29FIP
9.86K/9
3.35BB/9
1.35WHIP
Betting Edges
ML AWAY
+44.7% EV
+250
F5_ML AWAY
+35.1% EV
+240
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-31.6% EV
-143
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-26.2% EV
-105
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-25.5% EV
+118
ML HOME
-22.6% EV
-312
First 5 Innings & NRFI
COL F5
1.8 runs
35.8% win
PHI F5
2.1 runs
45.4% win
F5 Total
3.9
NRFI
60.4%
YRFI
39.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.77
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.4
Over 0.5 HR
91%
Over 1.5 HR
69%
No HR
9%
Kyle Schwarber PHI30.0%
ISO: 0.400 | Barrel: 19.6% | vs Tomoyuki Sugano | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Bryce Harper PHI30.0%
ISO: 0.299 | Barrel: 15.3% | vs Tomoyuki Sugano | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Brandon Marsh PHI30.0%
ISO: 0.188 | Barrel: 8.2% | vs Tomoyuki Sugano | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Tomoyuki Sugano
0.0 K projected
COL | K/9: 0.0
Cristopher Sánchez
0.0 K projected
PHI | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
COL8 injured
Jimmy Herget RPBEREAVEMENT
RJ Petit RP60-DAY-IL
McCade Brown SP60-DAY-IL
Brayan Castillo RPDAY-TO-DAY
Pierson Ohl RP60-DAY-IL
Kris Bryant DH60-DAY-IL
+2 more
PHI8 injured
Keaton Anthony 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Johan Rojas CFSUSPENSION
Kyle Backhus RP15-DAY-IL
Zach Pop RP15-DAY-IL
Rene Pinto CDAY-TO-DAY
Christian McGowan RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -2YELLOW ZONE46.9% WR (n=142)
Model shows 44.7% edge to COL despite Sánchez (2.61 ERA, B grade ace) being HOME pitcher. This VIOLATES PITCHER ATTRIBUTION RULE: PHI pitcher is superior (Sánchez 2.61, 28.4% K vs Sugano 3.68, 15.1% K), yet model favors COL as away. High edges (15%+) have WORST historical win rates (35.7% in tracked data). This is a RED FLAG overconfidence signal.
Key Factors
- 44.7% ML edge to COL conflicts pitcher quality: Sánchez 2.61 ERA (B grade, 28.4% K) is HOME pitcher. Model should favor PHI due to pitcher advantage, not COL.
- Model win prob COL 41.3% vs market 28.6% = 12.7% edge, but edges 15%+ have WORST historical performance (35.7% WR in 15-25% range). This is a classic overconfidence signal.
- Calibration history shows high-edge plays fail: when model edge > market consensus by this much, model is usually wrong. Edge caps exist at 12% max for good reason.
- Market has PHI at -312 (75.8%), suggesting sharp consensus is STRONGLY on PHI side, opposite of model prediction
Risk Factors
- 44.7% edge is EXTREME and historically has 35.7% win rate when betting against market consensus at this magnitude
- Sánchez (2.61, 28.4% K) is a TRUE ACE; Sugano (3.68, 15.1% K) is mediocre. Model undervaluing home pitcher advantage.
- Public money likely on PHI (easy favorite); sharp money may be AGAINST the model, not with it
HIGH EDGE WARNINGMODEL MARKET CONFLICTPITCHER MISMATCH CONTRADICTIONDATA INTEGRITY
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
PHI 53.7%
-31.6 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-31.6 pts
Total
8.5
+16.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →