COL vs PIT prediction for May 12, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects PIT 3.9 - COL 3.4. PIT is favored with a 57.2% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.3 total runs.
PIT
3.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
COL
3.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
PITCOL
-1.5
Run Line (PIT)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.4% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
COL
135
PIT
246
Projected
PIT 3.9 — COL 3.4
Actual
PIT 3 — COL 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Michael Lorenzen R
COL
CH20%84 mph34% whiff
FF18%94 mph9% whiff
SI16%93 mph10% whiff
Paul Skenes R
PIT
FF36%97 mph24% whiff
CH17%89 mph31% whiff
SI16%97 mph6% whiff
Weather Impact
PNC Park
71°F8 mph wind
HR: 0.991 Total: 0.992
7mph in
Bullpen Comparison
COL
4.93ERA
4.32FIP
9.06K/9
4.11BB/9
1.47WHIP
PIT
4.23ERA
3.98FIP
9.40K/9
4.44BB/9
1.37WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-34.4% EV
+100
ML AWAY
+30.7% EV
+235
F5_ML AWAY
+26.6% EV
+255
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-23.2% EV
-120
ML HOME
-18.3% EV
-294
F5_ML HOME
-17.0% EV
-345
First 5 Innings & NRFI
COL F5
1.6 runs
31.7% win
PIT F5
2.2 runs
49.4% win
F5 Total
3.8
NRFI
59.9%
YRFI
40.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.74
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.1
Over 0.5 HR
88%
Over 1.5 HR
63%
No HR
12%
Brandon Lowe PIT30.0%
ISO: 0.361 | Barrel: 17.5% | vs Michael Lorenzen | Park: 0.95x Platoon: 1.12x
Oneil Cruz PIT30.0%
ISO: 0.192 | Barrel: 12.5% | vs Michael Lorenzen | Park: 0.95x Platoon: 1.12x
Spencer Horwitz PIT30.0%
ISO: 0.174 | Barrel: 7.6% | vs Michael Lorenzen | Park: 0.95x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Michael Lorenzen
0.0 K projected
COL | K/9: 0.0
Paul Skenes
0.0 K projected
PIT | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
COL8 injured
RJ Petit RP60-DAY-IL
McCade Brown SP60-DAY-IL
Brayan Castillo RPDAY-TO-DAY
Pierson Ohl RP60-DAY-IL
Kris Bryant DH60-DAY-IL
Case Williams SPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
PIT8 injured
Jared Jones SP60-DAY-IL
Jake Mangum LF10-DAY-IL
Anthony Solometo SPDAY-TO-DAY
Chris Devenski RP15-DAY-IL
Oddanier Mosqueda RPDAY-TO-DAY
Mike Clevinger RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
PIT 57.2%
-23.2 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-23.2 pts
Total
7.5
+7.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →