COL vs PIT prediction for May 13, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects PIT 3.6 - COL 3.3. PIT is favored with a 55.5% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 6.9 total runs.
PIT
3.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
COL
3.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
PITCOL
-1.5
Run Line (PIT)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
COL
135
PIT
246
Projected
PIT 3.6 — COL 3.3
Actual
PIT 4 — COL 10
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jose Quintana L
COL
FF30%90 mph23% whiff
CH20%85 mph33% whiff
SI19%90 mph6% whiff
Mitch Keller R
PIT
FF35%94 mph16% whiff
ST19%82 mph24% whiff
SI19%92 mph14% whiff
Weather Impact
PNC Park
66°F13 mph wind
HR: 0.976 Total: 0.984
10mph in
Bullpen Comparison
COL
4.92ERA
4.31FIP
8.96K/9
4.09BB/9
1.47WHIP
PIT
4.26ERA
3.98FIP
9.34K/9
4.41BB/9
1.38WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-38.3% EV
-133
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-31.2% EV
-105
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+21.0% EV
-115
F5 UNDER 4.5
+20.3% EV
-108
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-17.7% EV
+112
NRFI NRFI
+15.7% EV
-106
First 5 Innings & NRFI
COL F5
1.6 runs
33.9% win
PIT F5
2.1 runs
46.0% win
F5 Total
3.7
NRFI
63.4%
YRFI
36.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.69
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.9
Over 0.5 HR
85%
Over 1.5 HR
57%
No HR
15%
Mickey Moniak COL30.0%
ISO: 0.367 | Barrel: 19.8% | vs Mitch Keller | Park: 0.95x Platoon: 1.12x
Oneil Cruz PIT30.0%
ISO: 0.280 | Barrel: 12.9% | vs Jose Quintana | Park: 0.95x
Brandon Lowe PIT30.0%
ISO: 0.158 | Barrel: 17.1% | vs Jose Quintana | Park: 0.95x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Jose Quintana
0.0 K projected
COL | K/9: 0.0
Mitch Keller
0.0 K projected
PIT | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
COL8 injured
RJ Petit RP60-DAY-IL
McCade Brown SP60-DAY-IL
Brayan Castillo RPDAY-TO-DAY
Pierson Ohl RP60-DAY-IL
Kris Bryant DH60-DAY-IL
Case Williams SPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
PIT8 injured
Jared Jones SP60-DAY-IL
Joey Bart C10-DAY-IL
Jake Mangum LF10-DAY-IL
Anthony Solometo SPDAY-TO-DAY
Chris Devenski RP15-DAY-IL
Oddanier Mosqueda RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +2YELLOW ZONE50.4% WR (n=252)
Mitch Keller (3.10 ERA, B- grade) vs Jose Quintana (4.21 ERA, C- grade, diminished stuff score 0.082) projects 6.92 total runs but market prices 8.5; UNDER has massive +21.0% edge (64.7% model prob), F5 UNDER +20.3%, NRFI +15.7% — this is a rare alignment of model dominance, strong weather (wind IN), and park dynamics that all point to significant unders.
Key Factors
- Pitcher mismatch: Keller 3.10 ERA (B-, good command) vs Quintana 4.21 ERA (C-, 0.082 stuff = D level)
- UNDER edge: +21.0% (model 64.7% under prob vs market 43% = 1.58 run gap on 8.5 total)
- F5 UNDER: +20.3% edge (62.3% model prob); early pitcher advantage dominant
- NRFI: +15.7% edge (59.6% NRFI prob); both starter dominance supports no-run-first-inning
- Weather: 66°F, 10 mph IN, park factor 1.0 (neutral); all conditions support low-scoring game
Risk Factors
- High edge (21%+) historically underperforms (36.4% WR in 15-25% edge bucket); cap confidence for safety
- YELLOW zone on totals (50.4% WR) suggests totals bets are unreliable; could be sample noise
- Quintana is aging but unpredictable; sample size on his recent decline is small
PITCHER MISMATCHELITE EDGEF5 EDGENRFI EDGEWEATHER IMPACTHIGH EDGE WARNING
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
PIT 55.5%
-17.7 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-17.7 pts
Total
8.5
+21.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →