FINAL: TOR 5 — COL 1. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected TOR 5.0 - COL 3.6 (TOR at 63.9% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 8.6 total runs.
TOR
5.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
COL
3.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
TORCOL
-1.5
Run Line (TOR)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
COL L5TOR L5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 65.3% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
COL
246
TOR
357
Projected
TOR 5.0 — COL 3.6
Actual
TOR 5 — COL 1
Pick Results
F5 UNDER 4.5f5_totalLOSS-1.00u
COL @ TOR NRFInrfiWIN+0.90u
COL MLmlLOSS-1.00u
COL F5 MLf5_mlLOSS-1.00u
UNDER 8.5totalLOSS-1.00u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Ryan Feltner R
COL
FF34%94 mph16% whiff
CH18%85 mph43% whiff
SL17%88 mph26% whiff
Max Scherzer R
TOR
FF49%94 mph16% whiff
SL23%86 mph30% whiff
CH14%85 mph17% whiff
Weather Impact
Rogers Centre
41°F12 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.049 Total: 1.030
11mph out
Bullpen Comparison
COL
4.89ERA
4.56FIP
7.94K/9
3.93BB/9
1.44WHIP
TOR
3.29ERA
3.68FIP
10.82K/9
4.12BB/9
1.32WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-42.5% EV
+104
F5 UNDER 4.5
+21.7% EV
-114
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-15.5% EV
-125
NRFI NRFI
+14.3% EV
-111
ML AWAY
+10.3% EV
+215
ML HOME
-8.9% EV
-263
First 5 Innings & NRFI
COL F5
1.4 runs
29.4% win
TOR F5
2.2 runs
51.0% win
F5 Total
3.6
NRFI
62.7%
YRFI
37.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.70
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.9
Over 0.5 HR
84%
Over 1.5 HR
55%
No HR
16%
George Springer TOR21.3%
ISO: 0.261 | Barrel: 15.0% | vs Ryan Feltner | Park: 1.01x
Kazuma Okamoto TOR16.2%
ISO: 0.150 | Barrel: 15.0% | vs Ryan Feltner | Park: 1.01x
TJ Rumfield COL14.5%
ISO: 0.143 | Barrel: 14.3% | vs Max Scherzer | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Ryan Feltner
0.0 K projected
COL | K/9: 0.0
Max Scherzer
0.0 K projected
TOR | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
COL8 injured
Mickey Moniak RF10-DAY-IL
RJ Petit RP60-DAY-IL
Tyler Freeman RF10-DAY-IL
McCade Brown SP15-DAY-IL
Blaine Crim 1B10-DAY-IL
Pierson Ohl RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
TOR8 injured
Cody Ponce SPOUT
Shane Bieber SP15-DAY-IL
Trey Yesavage SP15-DAY-IL
Yimi Garcia RP15-DAY-IL
Mason Fluharty RPDAY-TO-DAY
Jose Berrios SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TOR 63.9%
-15.5 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-15.5 pts
Total
8.5
+1.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →