FINAL: BAL 3 — CWS 9. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected BAL 6.3 - CWS 5.5 (BAL at 58.6% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 10.5. Model projects 11.8 total runs.
BAL
6.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 10.5
CWS
5.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
BALCWS
-1.5
Run Line (BAL)
10.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
CWS W5BAL L5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.1% (2,559 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CWS
467
BAL
468
Projected
BAL 6.3 — CWS 5.5
Actual
BAL 3 — CWS 9
Pick Results
BAL MLmlLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Erick Fedde R
CWS
ST38%82 mph20% whiff
SI27%94 mph11% whiff
FC19%90 mph13% whiff
Trey Gibson R
BAL
SI27%95 mph15% whiff
SL21%88 mph28% whiff
FC19%92 mph18% whiff
Weather Impact
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
93°F8 mph wind
HR: 1.000 Total: 0.997
thin air, 7mph in
Bullpen Comparison
CWS
4.29ERA
4.67FIP
8.64K/9
4.97BB/9
1.34WHIP
BAL
4.34ERA
4.01FIP
8.76K/9
3.44BB/9
1.30WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-38.7% EV
-161
TOTAL UNDER 10.5
-10.9% EV
-102
ML AWAY
-6.5% EV
+124
F5_ML HOME
-5.6% EV
-147
F5_ML AWAY
-4.5% EV
+118
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
+2.2% EV
+134
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CWS F5
3.1 runs
39.1% win
BAL F5
3.6 runs
49.6% win
F5 Total
6.7
NRFI
47.2%
YRFI
52.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.23
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.1
Over 0.5 HR
95%
Over 1.5 HR
80%
No HR
5%
Colson Montgomery CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.249 | Barrel: 14.9% | vs Trey Gibson | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Miguel Vargas CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.200 | Barrel: 14.0% | vs Trey Gibson | Park: 1.03x
Andrew Benintendi CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.198 | Barrel: 8.6% | vs Trey Gibson | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Erick Fedde
0.0 K projected
CWS | K/9: 0.0
Trey Gibson
0.0 K projected
BAL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CWSHealthy
BAL8 injured
Keegan Akin RP15-DAY-IL
Yaramil Hiraldo RP60-DAY-IL
Felix Bautista RP60-DAY-IL
Colin Selby RP60-DAY-IL
Dean Kremer SP60-DAY-IL
Chris Bassitt SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1YELLOW ZONE56.3% WR (n=145)
Trey Gibson (C+ overall, 5.1 K/9, 0.27 SI / 0.21 SL / 0.19 FC) outperforms Erick Fedde (C, 6.0 K/9, 0.38 ST heavy) on the surface, but BAL home field (-2.1% edge) and market pricing (BAL -147 = 59.5% implied vs 58.3% model) suggests line is already efficient. No informational asymmetry visible. Zone: YELLOW (56.3% WR, n=145). Hot stadium (92.9°F, thin air) works slightly against runs but totals edge only 0.6% — below minimum. CAUTION: Both pitchers grade C/C+, not trustworthy data for directional edge.
Key Factors
- Pitcher mismatch: Gibson (C+ grade, 5.1 K/9) vs Fedde (C grade, 6.0 K/9) — minimal separation, both unreliable
- Park factor: Camden Yards 1.03 (neutral, no home run boost)
- Temp 92.9°F adds ~0.5 runs to model but wind blowing in (-7.3 mph tail wind) cancels benefit
- Market already pricing BAL -2.1% edge — no asymmetry to exploit
- Zone: YELLOW (56.3% WR) not strong enough to overcome -2.1% edge
Risk Factors
- Both C-grade starters = high variance; model confidence should be low
- CWS has adequate bullpen (4.29 ERA) but BAL bullpen weak (4.34 ERA) — relief advantage minimal
- Road team CWS could see getaway day effect if this goes late
TBD PITCHER QUALITYZONE YELLOWMARKET RESPECTS CORRECTLYNO INFORMATIONAL EDGE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
BAL 58.6%
+2.2 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+2.2 pts
Total
10.5
+0.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →