CWS vs BAL prediction for July 2, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects BAL 6.4 - CWS 5.4. BAL is favored with a 59.6% win probability. The run line is -3.0 and the total is 10.5. Model projects 11.8 total runs.
BAL
6.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 10.5
CWS
5.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
BALCWS
-3.0
Run Line (BAL)
10.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.5% (2,543 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CWS
357
BAL
468
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Erick Fedde R
CWS
ST38%82 mph20% whiff
SI27%94 mph11% whiff
FC19%90 mph13% whiff
Trey Gibson R
BAL
SI27%95 mph15% whiff
SL21%88 mph28% whiff
FC19%92 mph18% whiff
Weather Impact
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
96°F4 mph wind
HR: 1.026 Total: 1.012
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
CWS
4.29ERA
4.67FIP
8.64K/9
4.97BB/9
1.34WHIP
BAL
4.34ERA
4.01FIP
8.76K/9
3.44BB/9
1.30WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +3.0
-46.6% EV
-333
RUN_LINE HOME -3.0
+36.0% EV
+235
TOTAL UNDER 10.5
-13.5% EV
-110
ML AWAY
-7.2% EV
+128
TOTAL OVER 10.5
+4.4% EV
-110
ML HOME
-2.0% EV
-154
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CWS F5
3.1 runs
38.4% win
BAL F5
3.7 runs
49.8% win
F5 Total
6.8
NRFI
46.2%
YRFI
53.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.28
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.1
Over 0.5 HR
95%
Over 1.5 HR
81%
No HR
5%
Colson Montgomery CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.249 | Barrel: 14.9% | vs Trey Gibson | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Miguel Vargas CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.200 | Barrel: 14.0% | vs Trey Gibson | Park: 1.03x
Andrew Benintendi CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.198 | Barrel: 8.6% | vs Trey Gibson | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Erick Fedde
0.0 K projected
CWS | K/9: 0.0
Trey Gibson
0.0 K projected
BAL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CWSHealthy
BAL8 injured
Keegan Akin RP15-DAY-IL
Yaramil Hiraldo RP60-DAY-IL
Felix Bautista RP60-DAY-IL
Colin Selby RP60-DAY-IL
Dean Kremer SP60-DAY-IL
Chris Bassitt SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
BAL 59.6%
+36.0 pts
Run Line
-3.0
+36.0 pts
Total
10.5
+4.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →