CWS vs DET prediction for June 19, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects DET 4.4 - CWS 3.8. DET is favored with a 55.6% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 8.2 total runs.
DET
4.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
CWS
3.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
DETCWS
-1.5
Run Line (DET)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.7% (2,456 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CWS
246
DET
246
Projected
DET 4.4 — CWS 3.8
Actual
DET 4 — CWS 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Brandon Eisert L
CWS
FF39%90 mph25% whiff
SL28%84 mph34% whiff
CH27%85 mph34% whiff
Tarik Skubal L
DET
FF37%97 mph16% whiff
CH25%87 mph47% whiff
SI19%96 mph8% whiff
Weather Impact
Comerica Park
76°F13 mph wind
HR: 0.982 Total: 0.987
thin air, 10mph in
Bullpen Comparison
CWS
4.29ERA
4.67FIP
8.64K/9
4.97BB/9
1.34WHIP
DET
4.22ERA
4.23FIP
8.86K/9
4.10BB/9
1.37WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-37.0% EV
-127
F5_ML AWAY
+16.1% EV
+186
ML AWAY
+15.8% EV
+172
F5_ML HOME
-15.6% EV
-238
ML HOME
-14.5% EV
-204
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-14.3% EV
+105
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CWS F5
1.9 runs
36.2% win
DET F5
2.4 runs
47.3% win
F5 Total
4.3
NRFI
57.7%
YRFI
42.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.86
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.9
Over 0.5 HR
85%
Over 1.5 HR
58%
No HR
15%
Dillon Dingler DET28.8%
ISO: 0.233 | Barrel: 15.8% | vs Brandon Eisert | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Miguel Vargas CWS21.4%
ISO: 0.352 | Barrel: 14.0% | vs Tarik Skubal | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Colson Montgomery CWS20.2%
ISO: 0.285 | Barrel: 14.9% | vs Tarik Skubal | Park: 0.97x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Brandon Eisert
0.0 K projected
CWS | K/9: 0.0
Tarik Skubal
0.0 K projected
DET | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CWSHealthy
DET8 injured
Wenceel Perez RF10-DAY-IL
Jack Flaherty SP15-DAY-IL
Gleyber Torres 2B10-DAY-IL
Justin Verlander SP60-DAY-IL
Javier Baez SS60-DAY-IL
Burch Smith RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1RED ZONE41.9% WR (n=64)
Model shows 15.8% edge on CWS ML (+172), but Skubal missing Bayesian ERA data, RED zone combo (41.9% WR) on away ML, and market respecting -204 DET odds suggests sharp money sees something we don't — high edge contradicts weak zone history.
Key Factors
- Data integrity: Skubal missing Bayesian ERA — cannot confirm elite status, only grade (B). Recent performance unknown.
- F5 ML CWS shows 16.1% edge (40.6% model) — F5 market also reflects CWS value, not just ML
- Market -204 DET implies 67.1% win prob — aggressive but defensible if Skubal is truly elite
- RED zone combo (41.9% WR) on away ML: Historical pick accuracy contradicts 15.8% model edge
Risk Factors
- High edge (15.8%) with RED zone (41.9% WR) = classic overconfidence trap; model wrong 58% of time on away ML RED picks
- Skubal missing ERA: Cannot independently verify elite status; could be recent call-up or limited sample
- DET -204 suggests sharp money confident in DET quality; market respect is real signal to trust
DATA INTEGRITYRED ZONEHIGH EDGE WARNINGMODEL MARKET CONFLICT
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
DET 55.6%
-14.3 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-14.3 pts
Total
8.5
+1.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →