Who is predicted to win CWS vs DET on June 21, 2026?

Based on 10,000 Pitch Sim v5.3 Monte Carlo simulations, DET is favored with a 51.2% win probability. The simulation's mean projected score is DET 4.4 - CWS 4.5.

How did CWS vs DET on June 21, 2026 end?

Final score: DET 5 - CWS 4. This page now shows our pre-game projection alongside the actual outcome for transparency — every Olympus Bets projection is preserved with its result.

How does Olympus Bets generate sports predictions?

Every projection is produced by a league-specific Monte Carlo simulation engine (10,000+ iterations per game), Platt-scaled and isotonic-calibrated against historical outcomes, then sized with the Kelly Criterion plus a 15% Bayesian probability shrinkage. The full methodology is documented at https://app.olympus-bets.com/methodology.

CWS vs DET Prediction & Picks — June 21, 2026

CWS vs DET prediction for June 21, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects DET 4.4 - CWS 4.5. DET is favored with a 51.2% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 8.9 total runs.

DET

4.4

Projected Score

VS O/U 8.5

CWS

4.5

Projected Score

Win Probability

51.2%

48.8%

DETCWS

+1.5

Run Line (DET)

8.5

Total Line

10,000

Simulations

☑ Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.1% (2,497 games)

Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile

CWS

346

DET

246

Projected

DET 4.4 — CWS 4.5

Actual

DET 5 — CWS 4

Starting Pitcher Matchup

Davis Martin R

CWS

FF25%94 mph24% whiff

SI17%93 mph10% whiff

CH15%90 mph15% whiff

Keider Montero R

DET

FF33%94 mph10% whiff

SI20%95 mph8% whiff

SL18%86 mph20% whiff

Weather Impact

Comerica Park

74°F8 mph wind

HR: 1.071 Total: 1.039

thin air, 7mph out

Bullpen Comparison

CWS

4.29ERA

4.67FIP

8.64K/9

4.97BB/9

1.34WHIP

DET

4.22ERA

4.23FIP

8.86K/9

4.10BB/9

1.37WHIP

Betting Edges

RUN_LINE HOME +1.5

-34.7% EV

-179

RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5

-10.0% EV

+146

F5_ML AWAY

-6.5% EV

-118

TOTAL UNDER 8.5

-5.4% EV

-115

ML AWAY

-5.3% EV

-108

F5_ML HOME

-4.0% EV

-106

First 5 Innings & NRFI

CWS F5

2.4 runs

42.0% win

DET F5

2.4 runs

41.5% win

F5 Total

4.7

NRFI

52.4%

YRFI

47.6%

Avg 1st Inn Runs

0.96

HR Spotlight

Avg HRs

2.2

Over 0.5 HR

88%

Over 1.5 HR

65%

No HR

12%

Colson Montgomery CWS30.0%

ISO: 0.249 | Barrel: 14.9% | vs Keider Montero | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x

Andrew Benintendi CWS27.2%

ISO: 0.198 | Barrel: 8.6% | vs Keider Montero | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x

Braden Montgomery CWS24.6%

ISO: 0.151 | Barrel: 15.1% | vs Keider Montero | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Davis Martin

0.0 K projected

CWS | K/9: 0.0

Keider Montero

0.0 K projected

DET | K/9: 0.0

Injury Report

CWSHealthy

DET8 injured

Wenceel Perez RF10-DAY-IL

Jack Flaherty SP15-DAY-IL

Gleyber Torres 2B10-DAY-IL

Justin Verlander SP60-DAY-IL

Javier Baez SS60-DAY-IL

Burch Smith RP15-DAY-IL

+2 more

AI Intelligence Analysis

NEUTRALYELLOW ZONE50.5% WR (n=244)

Coin flip with negligible edge: model slight home lean (51.2%) but market even (-107 both sides); neither starter has Bayesian ERA data (TBD risk), making confidence calibration impossible.

Key Factors

Both SPs TBD on Bayesian ERA (Montero, Martin missing historical data) — reduces confidence sharply
CWS missing two key OF; impact roughly -0.3 runs on offense
Comerica Park slight tailwind boost (7.5 mph out, +1.039 mult) marginal at 73.8F

Risk Factors

Data integrity issue: cannot verify pitcher quality from actual era/K-rates; pure model projection risk
Even money market suggests sharp consensus agrees it's 50-50

DATA INTEGRITYTBD PITCHERNEUTRAL ODDS

Edge Analysis

Moneyline

DET 51.2%

-34.7 pts

Run Line