CWS vs LAA prediction for May 5, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects LAA 3.2 - CWS 3.5. CWS is favored with a 51.8% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 6.8 total runs.
LAA
3.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
CWS
3.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
LAACWS
+1.5
Run Line (LAA)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CWS
245
LAA
135
Projected
LAA 3.2 — CWS 3.5
Actual
LAA 4 — CWS 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Erick Fedde R
CWS
ST38%82 mph23% whiff
FC25%90 mph13% whiff
SI24%94 mph5% whiff
Sam Aldegheri L
LAA
FF45%92 mph16% whiff
CH24%82 mph27% whiff
SL19%82 mph18% whiff
Weather Impact
Angel Stadium
63°F9 mph wind
HR: 0.965 Total: 0.978
9mph in
Bullpen Comparison
CWS
5.07ERA
4.82FIP
8.70K/9
5.63BB/9
1.54WHIP
LAA
4.96ERA
4.84FIP
8.52K/9
4.67BB/9
1.40WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 9.0
-46.0% EV
-110
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-41.8% EV
-192
TOTAL UNDER 9.0
+25.7% EV
-110
F5 UNDER 5.5
+23.2% EV
-141
NRFI NRFI
+23.1% EV
+114
F5_ML HOME
-15.5% EV
-114
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CWS F5
2.0 runs
45.4% win
LAA F5
1.6 runs
34.3% win
F5 Total
3.7
NRFI
62.2%
YRFI
37.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.74
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.7
Over 0.5 HR
81%
Over 1.5 HR
49%
No HR
19%
Colson Montgomery CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.350 | Barrel: 14.8% | vs Sam Aldegheri | Park: 0.98x
Miguel Vargas CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.400 | Barrel: 12.6% | vs Sam Aldegheri | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Mike Trout LAA30.0%
ISO: 0.271 | Barrel: 16.2% | vs Erick Fedde | Park: 0.98x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Erick Fedde
0.0 K projected
CWS | K/9: 0.0
Sam Aldegheri
0.0 K projected
LAA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CWSHealthy
LAA8 injured
Yusei Kikuchi SP15-DAY-IL
Grayson Rodriguez SP15-DAY-IL
Alek Manoah SP15-DAY-IL
Logan O'Hoppe C10-DAY-IL
Ryan Johnson SP15-DAY-IL
Walbert Urena SPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE50.8% WR (n=235)
Erick Fedde's pitcher advantage (3.50 ERA, C) over Sam Aldegheri (5.83 ERA, C-) combined with 62.8F cool weather and 9 mph wind-in creates suppressed run environment; UNDER 9.0 at 25.7% edge is actionable but calibration-risky.
Key Factors
- SP advantage CWS: Erick Fedde (3.50 ERA, C, 16.4% K rate) vs Sam Aldegheri (5.83 ERA, C-, 17.3% K rate) — 2.33 ERA gap favors away
- Cool weather (62.8F) + wind-in (9.0 mph, tail -9.0) = moderate run suppression ~-0.75 runs
- Model projects 6.77 total vs market 9.0 — 2.23 run gap creates 25.7% UNDER edge
- CWS bullpen mediocre (5.07 ERA, 0.888 quality) vs LAA mediocre (4.96 ERA, 0.907 quality) — neutral
- Market correctly at -112/-104 (near-50/50) suggests market skeptical of CWS pitcher advantage despite Fedde edge
Risk Factors
- 25.7% UNDER edge at absolute threshold of high-edge warning — calibration suggests avoidance
- Market near-neutral (-112/-104) suggests smart money not backing either side despite CWS pitcher advantage
- Cool weather impact (-0.75 runs) is real but might be overweighted vs market expectation
PITCHER MISMATCHWEATHER IMPACTWIND INHIGH EDGE WARNINGYELLOW ZONE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CWS 51.8%
-41.8 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-41.8 pts
Total
9.0
+25.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →