CWS vs MIA prediction for March 30, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIA 4.2 - CWS 5.2. CWS is favored with a 57.0% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 9.5 total runs.
MIA
4.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
CWS
5.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
MIACWS
-1.5
Run Line (MIA)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
CWS W5MIA L4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.4% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CWS
357
MIA
246
Pick Results
Munetaka Murakami OVER 1.5 Total Basesbatter_tbLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Davis Martin R
CWS
FF32%94 mph18% whiff
CH24%90 mph17% whiff
SL21%88 mph28% whiff
Chris Paddack R
MIA
FF43%94 mph16% whiff
CH23%84 mph25% whiff
FC14%87 mph22% whiff
Weather Impact
loanDepot park
77°F9 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.060 Total: 1.034
8mph out
Bullpen Comparison
CWS
5.42ERA
5.15FIP
9.17K/9
5.34BB/9
1.47WHIP
MIA
3.31ERA
4.14FIP
7.55K/9
2.95BB/9
1.22WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-28.5% EV
-182
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-27.9% EV
+150
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
-22.6% EV
-112
F5_ML HOME
-20.9% EV
-132
ML HOME
-19.5% EV
-139
ML AWAY
+18.1% EV
+118
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CWS F5
2.1 runs
48.4% win
MIA F5
1.6 runs
33.6% win
F5 Total
3.8
NRFI
61.7%
YRFI
38.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.71
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
0.0
Over 0.5 HR
0%
Over 1.5 HR
0%
No HR
0%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Davis Martin
0.0 K projected
CWS | K/9: 0.0
Chris Paddack
0.0 K projected
MIA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CWSHealthy
MIA8 injured
Christopher Morel LF10-DAY-IL
Kyle Stowers LF10-DAY-IL
Esteury Ruiz LF10-DAY-IL
Maximo Acosta SS10-DAY-IL
Adam Mazur SP60-DAY-IL
Thomas White SPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CWS 57.0%
-27.9 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-27.9 pts
Total
8.0
+16.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →