CWS vs NYY prediction for June 16, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYY 4.0 - CWS 4.7. CWS is favored with a 53.8% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 8.8 total runs.
NYY
4.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
CWS
4.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYYCWS
-1.5
Run Line (NYY)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.3% (2,386 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CWS
357
NYY
246
Projected
NYY 4.0 — CWS 4.7
Actual
NYY 12 — CWS 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Davis Martin R
CWS
FF26%94 mph24% whiff
SI17%93 mph10% whiff
CH16%90 mph15% whiff
Gerrit Cole R
NYY
FF47%97 mph10% whiff
SL16%89 mph42% whiff
CH14%86 mph12% whiff
Weather Impact
Yankee Stadium
73°F12 mph wind
HR: 1.005 Total: 1.001
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
CWS
4.29ERA
4.67FIP
8.64K/9
4.97BB/9
1.34WHIP
NYY
3.36ERA
3.71FIP
8.80K/9
3.56BB/9
1.27WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-26.9% EV
-179
F5_ML HOME
-22.0% EV
-139
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-19.6% EV
+146
ML HOME
-18.4% EV
-145
ML AWAY
+14.9% EV
+122
F5_ML AWAY
+14.7% EV
+110
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CWS F5
2.5 runs
49.0% win
NYY F5
2.0 runs
35.6% win
F5 Total
4.5
NRFI
53.0%
YRFI
47.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.99
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.6
Over 0.5 HR
92%
Over 1.5 HR
73%
No HR
8%
Colson Montgomery CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.249 | Barrel: 14.9% | vs Gerrit Cole | Park: 1.10x Platoon: 1.12x
Andrew Benintendi CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.198 | Barrel: 8.6% | vs Gerrit Cole | Park: 1.10x Platoon: 1.12x
Miguel Vargas CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.200 | Barrel: 14.0% | vs Gerrit Cole | Park: 1.10x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Davis Martin
0.0 K projected
CWS | K/9: 0.0
Gerrit Cole
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CWSHealthy
NYY8 injured
Jasson Dominguez DHDAY-TO-DAY
Trent Grisham CF10-DAY-IL
Giancarlo Stanton DH10-DAY-IL
Austin Wells C10-DAY-IL
Max Fried SP15-DAY-IL
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1RED ZONE44.3% WR (n=103)
HIGH-EDGE ALERT OVERRIDE: CWS ML shows +14.9% edge (51.7% model vs 45.0% market) — market is severely mispricing this matchup. Gerrit Cole (2.65 ERA) is not materially superior to Davis Martin (2.60 ERA), yet NYY is -144 favorite (59.2% implied). Cole's pure stuff (0.282 score) is actually WORSE than Martin's (0.523 stuff score). This is market's classic home-pitcher bias trap.
Key Factors
- Pitcher grades critical: Martin (B, 0.596 overall, 0.523 stuff vs Cole C, 0.488 overall, 0.282 stuff) — Martin has BETTER arsenal despite Cole's fame
- ERA identical (Cole 2.65, Martin 2.60) — no actual performance gap. Cole's reputation is inflated by Yankee ballpark
- Aaron Judge (10-day IL, ribs) removal is massive — Yankees' best player gone. Estimated -1.5 to -2.0 point swing to NYY win prob
- F5 edge +14.7% favoring CWS (54.6% vs 45.4%) — strong early indicator of matchup dynamics
- Yankee Stadium park factor 1.10 (+10% HRs) helps only if CWS can't hit Cole early — and the data says they CAN (F5 advantage)
Risk Factors
- RED ZONE ALERT: Away ML underdog in RED zone (44.3% WR, n=103) — away dogs vs home favorites is the WORST historical matchup despite 14.9% edge
- High-edge trap: 14.9% edge is outside 'profitable' band (5-10% shows 71.4% WR; 10-15% shows 37.5% WR). Model likely overconfident here — cap conviction at +1, not +2
- Yankee Stadium historical tendency to bail out mediocre home pitchers — Cole could get lucky bounces despite inferior stuff grades
PITCHER MISMATCHHIGH EDGE WARNINGDATA INTEGRITYML VALUESHARP SUPPORTDIRECTION CONFIRMED
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CWS 53.8%
-19.6 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-19.6 pts
Total
7.5
+1.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →