CWS vs NYY prediction for June 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYY 6.1 - CWS 4.8. NYY is favored with a 58.9% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 10.9 total runs.
NYY
6.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
CWS
4.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYYCWS
-1.5
Run Line (NYY)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.7% (2,410 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CWS
357
NYY
468
Projected
NYY 6.1 — CWS 4.8
Actual
NYY 10 — CWS 5
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Anthony Kay L
CWS
FF26%96 mph16% whiff
ST20%82 mph30% whiff
SI18%95 mph16% whiff
Carlos Rodón L
NYY
FF44%94 mph23% whiff
SL26%86 mph25% whiff
SI16%93 mph17% whiff
Weather Impact
Yankee Stadium
72°F12 mph wind
HR: 1.035 Total: 1.019
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
CWS
4.29ERA
4.67FIP
8.64K/9
4.97BB/9
1.34WHIP
NYY
3.36ERA
3.71FIP
8.80K/9
3.56BB/9
1.27WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-42.2% EV
-147
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-28.7% EV
-115
TOTAL OVER 8.5
+20.7% EV
-105
F5 OVER 4.5
+15.6% EV
-115
F5_ML HOME
-7.3% EV
-182
ML HOME
-6.8% EV
-175
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CWS F5
2.8 runs
35.9% win
NYY F5
3.7 runs
52.2% win
F5 Total
6.5
NRFI
43.2%
YRFI
56.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.34
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.8
Over 0.5 HR
94%
Over 1.5 HR
77%
No HR
6%
Paul Goldschmidt NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.366 | Barrel: 13.6% | vs Anthony Kay | Park: 1.10x Platoon: 1.12x
Ben Rice NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.253 | Barrel: 18.3% | vs Anthony Kay | Park: 1.10x
Amed Rosario NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.224 | Barrel: 12.9% | vs Anthony Kay | Park: 1.10x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Anthony Kay
0.0 K projected
CWS | K/9: 0.0
Carlos Rodón
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CWSHealthy
NYY8 injured
Trent Grisham CF10-DAY-IL
Giancarlo Stanton DH10-DAY-IL
Austin Wells C10-DAY-IL
Max Fried SP15-DAY-IL
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
Eric Reyzelman SPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEANYELLOW ZONE53.2% WR (n=100)
NYY OVER 8.5 at 20.7% edge (model 61.9%, market 38.1%) is actionable, but in HIGH-EDGE TRAP zone. Model projects 10.9 runs; market 8.5 = 2.4 run gap. Both starters are weak (Rodriguez C+/B- stuff, Kay C+/C stuff). Yankee Stadium park (1.1 factor, +10% HR boost) is run-heavy. Lean OVER at 0.75 units due to edge magnitude, but cap risk.
Key Factors
- Park factor dominant: Yankee Stadium 1.1 multiplier = +10% run boost; 8.5 market total is soft for this park
- Pitcher mediocrity: Rodriguez (C+ stuff, 26.2% K rate) vs Kay (C+ stuff, 17.5% K rate). Neither dominates; contact-heavy game expected
- Model-market gap: 10.9 projected vs 8.5 market = 2.4 run edge to OVER; clear value signal
- Weather: 72.5°F at Yankee Stadium, 11.7 mph wind mostly neutral (2.4 mph tail wind) = 1.019 total multiplier (slight boost)
- Zone: OVER 53.2% WR (n=100, YELLOW); breakeven profitability
Risk Factors
- HIGH-EDGE TRAP (20.7%): 20-25% edge bucket shows only 53.2% WR (n=100 bets) — expected 60%+ but underperforming
- NYY injuries remove power (Judge especially) and run-driving potential; actual run environment may be lower than model assumes
- CWS is weak team; may underperform vs projection; NYY getting full lineup should increase edge, but injuries offset it
HIGH EDGE WARNINGPARK FACTORTOTALS VALUECAUTION
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYY 58.9%
+3.9 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+3.9 pts
Total
8.5
+20.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →