CWS vs NYY prediction for June 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYY 5.0 - CWS 5.6. CWS is favored with a 52.3% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 10.7 total runs.
NYY
5.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
CWS
5.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYYCWS
-1.5
Run Line (NYY)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.6% (2,433 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CWS
468
NYY
357
Projected
NYY 5.0 — CWS 5.6
Actual
NYY 1 — CWS 5
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Bryan Hudson L
CWS
FF68%92 mph22% whiff
ST22%81 mph23% whiff
SI7%90 mph27% whiff
Ryan Weathers L
NYY
FF29%96 mph18% whiff
CH22%85 mph33% whiff
SI20%94 mph8% whiff
Weather Impact
Yankee Stadium
88°F16 mph wind
HR: 0.961 Total: 0.974
thin air, 16mph in
Bullpen Comparison
CWS
4.29ERA
4.67FIP
8.64K/9
4.97BB/9
1.34WHIP
NYY
3.36ERA
3.71FIP
8.80K/9
3.56BB/9
1.27WHIP
Betting Edges
F5_ML HOME
-29.6% EV
-161
F5_ML AWAY
+29.0% EV
+128
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-25.3% EV
+116
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-22.3% EV
-141
ML HOME
-19.8% EV
-167
ML AWAY
+19.7% EV
+140
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CWS F5
3.5 runs
54.1% win
NYY F5
2.6 runs
33.5% win
F5 Total
6.1
NRFI
44.9%
YRFI
55.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.22
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.1
Over 0.5 HR
95%
Over 1.5 HR
80%
No HR
5%
Colson Montgomery CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.285 | Barrel: 14.9% | vs Ryan Weathers | Park: 1.10x
Miguel Vargas CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.352 | Barrel: 14.0% | vs Ryan Weathers | Park: 1.10x Platoon: 1.12x
Randal Grichuk CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.352 | Barrel: 15.6% | vs Ryan Weathers | Park: 1.10x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Bryan Hudson
0.0 K projected
CWS | K/9: 0.0
Ryan Weathers
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CWSHealthy
NYY8 injured
Trent Grisham CF10-DAY-IL
Giancarlo Stanton DH10-DAY-IL
Austin Wells C10-DAY-IL
Max Fried SP15-DAY-IL
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
Eric Reyzelman SPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -2RED ZONE45.3% WR (n=107)
Model's +19.7% edge on CWS away ML conflicts with pitcher quality (Hudson 7.6 K/9, 10.3% BB vs Weathers 9.8 K/9, 6.8% BB) and RED zone zone away ML profitability (45.3% WR). High edge (>15%) shows 37.5% WR historically — classic overconfidence trap.
Key Factors
- PITCHER MISMATCH AGAINST CWS: Weathers (B, 9.8 K/9, 6.8% BB, 0.578 score) > Hudson (B-, 7.6 K/9, 10.3% BB, 0.518 score) — clear NYY advantage
- Model edge +19.7% is EXTREME; historical 10-15%+ edges show 37.5% WR — overconfidence signal
- Away ML zone RED (45.3% WR); CWS away underdog compounds zone weakness
- Yankee Stadium park factor 1.1 (HR friendly) but 16.4 mph headwind (tail -15.6) suppresses overall scoring
- Market 62.5% NYY vs model 50.1% — 12.4 point gap is massive and unusual
Risk Factors
- Model's claimed CWS edge unsubstantiated by SP quality; bullpen/lineup edge not confirmed in data
- High-edge plays (15%+) historically fail; this is textbook trap
- Away ML inherently weak zone; model edge cannot overcome zone deficit
HIGH EDGE WARNINGPITCHER MISMATCHRED ZONEDATA INTEGRITYMODEL MARKET CONFLICTSTRONG OPPOSITION
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CWS 52.3%
-25.3 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-25.3 pts
Total
9.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →