CWS vs SEA prediction for May 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SEA 2.6 - CWS 2.9. CWS is favored with a 52.2% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 5.5 total runs.
SEA
2.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
CWS
2.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
SEACWS
-1.5
Run Line (SEA)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.7% (2,157 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CWS
135
SEA
135
Projected
SEA 2.6 — CWS 2.9
Actual
SEA 6 — CWS 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Noah Schultz L
CWS
FF28%95 mph25% whiff
SI24%95 mph10% whiff
ST24%83 mph32% whiff
Bryan Woo R
SEA
FF50%96 mph21% whiff
SI19%95 mph7% whiff
ST16%84 mph37% whiff
Weather Impact
T-Mobile Park
60°F6 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 0.998 Total: 0.999
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
CWS
4.98ERA
4.93FIP
8.16K/9
5.33BB/9
1.48WHIP
SEA
2.93ERA
3.50FIP
9.07K/9
3.44BB/9
1.31WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-40.7% EV
+100
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-36.5% EV
-161
F5 UNDER 3.5
+29.9% EV
+110
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-28.7% EV
+132
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
+28.1% EV
-122
ML HOME
-19.7% EV
-167
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CWS F5
1.4 runs
38.0% win
SEA F5
1.4 runs
36.8% win
F5 Total
2.8
NRFI
69.4%
YRFI
30.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.54
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.4
Over 0.5 HR
75%
Over 1.5 HR
40%
No HR
25%
Munetaka Murakami CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.345 | Barrel: 18.8% | vs Bryan Woo | Park: 0.89x Platoon: 1.12x
Colson Montgomery CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.287 | Barrel: 16.4% | vs Bryan Woo | Park: 0.89x Platoon: 1.12x
Drew Romo CWS29.6%
ISO: 0.200 | Barrel: 20.0% | vs Bryan Woo | Park: 0.89x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Noah Schultz
0.0 K projected
CWS | K/9: 0.0
Bryan Woo
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CWSHealthy
SEA8 injured
Brendan Donovan 3B10-DAY-IL
J.P. Crawford SSDAY-TO-DAY
Cal Raleigh C10-DAY-IL
Matt Brash RP15-DAY-IL
Miles Mastrobuoni 3B60-DAY-IL
Teddy McGraw SPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1RED ZONE45.1% WR (n=155)
EXTREME HIGH-EDGE WARNING: Bryan Woo (4.22 ERA, B grade, 22% K%) vs Noah Schultz (5.3 ERA, C+ grade, 20.8 K%). Model projects SEA 47.8% home win prob, market 62.4% (62.5 implied, heavily favoring home). Model AWAY ML 19.5% edge at 49.8% prob — this is DANGEROUSLY HIGH. Total 5.54 model vs 7.5 market = 28.1% edge on UNDER 7.5 at 70.4% prob. UNDER is DISABLED. This is a textbook case of model overconfidence. High edges (15%+) have WORST WR historically (30%). Market is likely correct in pricing SEA heavily. Cold weather (60.3F) suppresses runs. T-Mobile Park (0.89 park factor, -11% runs). The combination of suppressive factors is REAL, but 19.5% and 28.1% edges smell like model overfit. BLOCK this game.
Key Factors
- Model 19.5% AWAY ML edge and 28.1% UNDER edge — both dangerously high (>15%)
- Historical data: High edges (15%+) have 30% WR — worst performing zone
- Woo (4.22 ERA, B) vs Schultz (5.3 ERA, C+) = pitcher advantage to SEA, but real edge likely 3-5%, not 19.5%
- Cold weather (60.3F) + T-Mobile park (-11%) do suppress runs, but not -1.96 run gap
- Market pricing SEA at 62.5% home implies market sees clear SEA advantage; model likely overfit
Risk Factors
- AWAY ML RED ZONE (45.1% WR, n=155) combined with high edge = dangerous
- 28.1% UNDER edge is suspiciously high; unders are disabled for good reason (45.3% WR, -40u)
- Model overconfidence is highest risk on this slate. Market is likely correct to price SEA heavily.
HIGH EDGE WARNINGMODEL OVERCONFIDENCERED ZONE AWAY MLEXTREME TOTAL EDGEWEATHER IMPACTPARK FACTOR
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CWS 52.2%
-28.7 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-28.7 pts
Total
7.5
+28.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →