CWS vs SEA prediction for May 19, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SEA 2.8 - CWS 2.9. SEA is favored with a 51.1% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 5.7 total runs.
SEA
2.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
CWS
2.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
SEACWS
-1.5
Run Line (SEA)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.0% (2,186 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CWS
135
SEA
135
Projected
SEA 2.8 — CWS 2.9
Actual
SEA 1 — CWS 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Anthony Kay L
CWS
FF28%96 mph14% whiff
ST20%82 mph27% whiff
FC20%91 mph16% whiff
Bryce Miller R
SEA
FF41%95 mph18% whiff
FS19%84 mph25% whiff
SI16%95 mph6% whiff
Weather Impact
T-Mobile Park
58°F4 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 0.989 Total: 0.994
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
CWS
5.07ERA
4.96FIP
8.18K/9
5.29BB/9
1.49WHIP
SEA
2.93ERA
3.57FIP
9.07K/9
3.43BB/9
1.31WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-47.7% EV
-102
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-38.7% EV
-167
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
+26.3% EV
-120
F5 UNDER 4.5
+24.7% EV
-128
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-23.0% EV
+138
F5_ML HOME
-13.8% EV
-159
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CWS F5
1.5 runs
37.4% win
SEA F5
1.5 runs
38.9% win
F5 Total
3.0
NRFI
67.0%
YRFI
33.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.61
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.5
Over 0.5 HR
77%
Over 1.5 HR
44%
No HR
23%
Munetaka Murakami CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.339 | Barrel: 18.5% | vs Bryce Miller | Park: 0.89x Platoon: 1.12x
Colson Montgomery CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.282 | Barrel: 16.2% | vs Bryce Miller | Park: 0.89x Platoon: 1.12x
Miguel Vargas CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.174 | Barrel: 14.5% | vs Bryce Miller | Park: 0.89x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Anthony Kay
0.0 K projected
CWS | K/9: 0.0
Bryce Miller
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CWSHealthy
SEA8 injured
Brendan Donovan 3B10-DAY-IL
Cal Raleigh C10-DAY-IL
Matt Brash RP15-DAY-IL
Miles Mastrobuoni 3B60-DAY-IL
Teddy McGraw SPDAY-TO-DAY
Victor Robles RF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SEA 51.1%
-23.0 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-23.0 pts
Total
8.0
+26.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →