CWS vs SEA prediction for May 20, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SEA 2.6 - CWS 2.8. CWS is favored with a 51.3% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 5.5 total runs.
SEA
2.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
CWS
2.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
SEACWS
-1.5
Run Line (SEA)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.3% (2,197 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CWS
135
SEA
135
Projected
SEA 2.6 — CWS 2.8
Actual
SEA 5 — CWS 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Sean Burke R
CWS
FF38%94 mph17% whiff
KC23%79 mph18% whiff
SL16%87 mph31% whiff
Emerson Hancock R
SEA
FF36%95 mph24% whiff
SI24%95 mph7% whiff
ST21%78 mph36% whiff
Weather Impact
T-Mobile Park
61°F8 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 0.981 Total: 0.988
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
CWS
4.84ERA
4.71FIP
8.70K/9
5.32BB/9
1.49WHIP
SEA
2.91ERA
3.52FIP
9.24K/9
3.43BB/9
1.31WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-42.4% EV
+100
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-39.7% EV
-182
F5 UNDER 3.5
+31.3% EV
+108
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
+29.6% EV
-122
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-24.9% EV
+150
F5_ML HOME
-16.5% EV
-143
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CWS F5
1.4 runs
39.5% win
SEA F5
1.3 runs
34.7% win
F5 Total
2.7
NRFI
71.1%
YRFI
28.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.51
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.6
Over 0.5 HR
79%
Over 1.5 HR
47%
No HR
21%
Munetaka Murakami CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.336 | Barrel: 18.2% | vs Emerson Hancock | Park: 0.89x Platoon: 1.12x
Drew Romo CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.333 | Barrel: 19.2% | vs Emerson Hancock | Park: 0.89x Platoon: 1.12x
Colson Montgomery CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.273 | Barrel: 15.8% | vs Emerson Hancock | Park: 0.89x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Sean Burke
0.0 K projected
CWS | K/9: 0.0
Emerson Hancock
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CWSHealthy
SEA8 injured
J.P. Crawford SSDAY-TO-DAY
Brendan Donovan 3B10-DAY-IL
Cal Raleigh C10-DAY-IL
Miles Mastrobuoni 3B60-DAY-IL
Teddy McGraw SPDAY-TO-DAY
Victor Robles RF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CWS 51.3%
-24.9 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-24.9 pts
Total
7.5
+29.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →